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Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Nazim Belhocine
  • Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia
  • Jan Frie

Abstract

The Eurosystem, having purposefully expanded its footprint in recent years, confronts a period of loss-making as rising policy rates lift the remuneration of bank reserves while assets churn more slowly. This paper projects the net income of the Eurosystem and its “top-five” national central banks over a ten-year horizon, finding that losses, while large, will be temporary and recoupable. The policy conclusions are fourfold. First, the temporary and recoupable nature of the loss-making obviates any need for capital contributions or indemnities from the state, instead allowing losses to be offset against future net income. Second, it must nonetheless be communicated that fiscal impacts will be material, with annual taxes and transfers of 0.1−0.2 percent of GDP giving way to potentially long interruptions in some cases. Third, more-conservative profit distribution policies in the future steady state could help mitigate the on-off pattern of dividends. Finally and most vitally, loss-making must remain orthogonal to monetary policy decision-making, as indeed it is at the ECB. Ultimately, credibility will rest on performance in delivering on the price stability mandate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia & Jan Frie, 2023. "Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications," IMF Working Papers 2023/145, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/145
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimakopoulou, Vasiliki & Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2024. "Can central banks do the unpleasant job that governments should do?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Jost, Thomas & Mink, Reimund, 2024. "Central bank losses and commercial bank profits: Unexpected and unfair?," IMFS Working Paper Series 199, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Matteo Bonetti & Dirk Broeders & Damiaan Chen & Daniel Dimitrov, 2024. "Central Bank Capital and Shareholder Relationship," Working Papers 809, DNB.
    4. Hansen Arne, 2024. "Bundesbank-Verluste: Bilanzierungspraxis und etwaige Nachschusspflicht des Bundes," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(7), pages 497-502.
    5. Sergio Cesaratto & Eladio Febrero & George Pantelopoulos, 2024. "Redistributing central bank profits & losses across the Eurosystem: the Eurosystem's monetary income," FMM Working Paper 104-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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