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The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB

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  • Marozzi, Armando

Abstract

This paper proposes an econometric framework for nowcasting the monetary policy stance and decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) exploiting the ow of conventional and textual data that become available between two consecutive press conferences. Decompositions of the updated nowcasts into variables' marginal contribution are also provided to shed light on the main drivers of the ECB's reaction function at every point in time. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments, the model provides an accurate tracking of the ECB monetary policy stance and decisions. The inclusion of textual variables contributes significantly to the gradual improvement of the model performance. JEL Classification: E37, E47, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Marozzi, Armando, 2021. "The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB," Working Paper Series 2609, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212609
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2609~e49d2ad922.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanqing Yang & Xingcheng Xu & Jinfeng Ge & Yan Xu, 2024. "Machine Learning for Economic Forecasting: An Application to China's GDP Growth," Papers 2407.03595, arXiv.org.
    3. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic factor model; forecasting; monetary policy; natural language processing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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