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The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: a new database

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  • Ari, Anil
  • Ratnovski, Lev
  • Chen, Sophia

Abstract

This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems—elevated and unresolved NPLs—and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems during a crisis are important for post-crisis output recovery. JEL Classification: E32, E44, G21, N10, N20

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  • Ari, Anil & Ratnovski, Lev & Chen, Sophia, 2020. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: a new database," Working Paper Series 2395, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202395
    Note: 3402164
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    Cited by:

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    2. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lampe, Max & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2022. "The economic impact of the NPLcoverage expectations in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 297, European Central Bank.
    3. Farnè, Matteo & Vouldis, Angelos, 2024. "Do retail-oriented banks have less non-performing loans?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2021. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 160, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Zeqiraj, Veton & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Economic uncertainty, public debt and non-performing loans in the Eurozone: Three systemic crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Lucia Alessi & Brunella Bruno & Elena Carletti & Katja Neugebauer & Isabella Wolfskeil, 2021. "Cover your assets: non-performing loans and coverage ratios in Europe [Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(108), pages 685-733.
    7. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "COVID-19, nonperforming loans, and cross-border bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Asror Nigmonov & Syed Shams, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default: evidence from marketplace lending market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2022. "Computing nonperforming loan prices in banking efficiency analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Huizinga, Harry & Bertay, Ata, 2021. "Non-performing Loans – New Risks and," Other publications TiSEM a6895089-0d83-451c-894b-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti, 2021. "How much do non-performing loans hinder loan growth in Europe?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Kasinger, Johannes & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Ongena, Steven & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schmeling, Maik & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2021. "Non-performing loans - new risks and policies? NPL resolution after COVID-19: Main differences to previous crises," SAFE White Paper Series 84, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Avgeri, I. & Dendramis, Y. & Louri, H., 2021. "The Single Supervisory Mechanism and its implications for the profitability of European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Konrad Adler & Frederic Boissay, 2020. "Dealing with bank distress: Insights from a comprehensive database," BIS Working Papers 909, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2021. "Macroprudential Policies and The Covid-19 Pandemic: Risks and Challenges For Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 29441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Lukas Pfeifer, 2021. "Interaction of Cyclical and Structural Systemic Risks: Insights from Around and After the Global Financial Crisis," Research and Policy Notes 2021/03, Czech National Bank.
    17. Bacchiocchi, Andrea & Bischi, Gian Italo & Giombini, Germana, 2022. "Non-performing loans, expectations and banking stability: A dynamic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Várkonyi, Patrik & Szücs, Tamás & Cziglerné, Erb Edina & Pasitka, Ármin, 2024. "A pénzügyi instrumentumok új számviteli standardja a Covid árnyékában [European banks implementation of IFRS 9 in the shadow of the pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 201-222.
    19. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil K., 2021. "Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Agnesa Krasniqi Pervetica & Skender Ahmeti, 2023. "The Effect of Financial Risk Management on the Financial Performance of Commercial Banks in Western Balkan Before and During COVID-19," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 179-190.
    21. Ratnovski, Lev, 2020. "COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 71.
    22. Diana Bonfim & Leonor Queiró & Luísa Farinha, 2021. "Heterogeneity in loan pricing: the role of bank capital," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crises; crisis resolution; debt; non-performing loans; recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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