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The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications

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  • Ari, Anil
  • Chen, Sophia
  • Ratnovski, Lev

Abstract

We present a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 92 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises in NPL buildup but much heterogeneity in the pace of NPL resolution. We document how high and unresolved NPLs deepen post-crisis recessions and use a machine learning approach to establish pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems. These predictors—a set of weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions—help shed light on post-COVID-19 NPL vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ari, Anil & Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev, 2021. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000984
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106140
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Pfeifer, Lukáš, 2023. "Macro-prudential policies to contain the effect of structural risks on financial downturns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1204-1222.
    3. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
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    6. Matteo Foglia, 2022. "Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
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    10. Andreea Maura Bobiceanu & Ioana Georgiana Fä‚Rcaè˜, 2022. "Covid Crisis Effects On Non-Performing Loans In The Romanian Banking Market," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 30, pages 25-37, December.
    11. Costinela Fortea & Monica Laura Zlati & Valentin Marian Antohi, 2024. "Approaches to the Impact of Non-Performing Loans on the Romanian Economy," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 148-155.
    12. Florin Blaga & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Ioana Duca & Ionel Leonida & Dalia Poleac, 2024. "Analyzing the Determinants of Banking Profitability in European Commercial Banks: Do COVID-19 Economic Support Measures Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Douglas J. Cumming & Andrea Martinez-Salgueiro & Robert S. Reardon & Ahmed Sewaid, 2022. "COVID-19 bust, policy response, and rebound: equity crowdfunding and P2P versus banks," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 1825-1846, December.
    14. Tomasz Korol & Anestis K. Fotiadis, 2022. "Implementing artificial intelligence in forecasting the risk of personal bankruptcies in Poland and Taiwan," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 407-438, June.
    15. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Liu, Jinjing & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "Effect of COVID-19 on non-performing loans in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    17. Mehmet Selman Colak & Yavuz Kilic & Huseyin Ozturk & Mehmet Emre Samci, 2024. "An Application to Model Uncertainty in Modelling Non-Performing Loans," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2404, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Tomasz Korol, 2024. "Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 51(3), pages 279-302, September.
    19. Vyshnevskyi, Iegor & Sohn, Wook, 2023. "Nonperforming loans and related lending: Evidence from Ukraine," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Nada Milenković & Branimir Kalaš & Vera Mirović & Jelena Andrašić, 2024. "Static and Dynamic Modeling of Non-Performing Loan Determinants in the Eurozone," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, October.
    21. Khalil Alnabulsi & Emira Kozarević & Abdelaziz Hakimi, 2023. "Non-Performing Loans as a Driver of Banking Distress: A Systematic Literature Review," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20, April.
    22. Li, Kexin & Chen, Zhongfei & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2024. "Capital inflow liberalization and bank credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    23. Várkonyi, Patrik & Szücs, Tamás & Cziglerné, Erb Edina & Pasitka, Ármin, 2024. "A pénzügyi instrumentumok új számviteli standardja a Covid árnyékában [European banks implementation of IFRS 9 in the shadow of the pandemic]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 201-222.
    24. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Debt; Banking crises; Recessions; Crisis resolution; COVID;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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