IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20101177.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price and trading response to public information

Author

Listed:
  • Grothe, Magdalena

Abstract

In their seminal paper French and Roll (1986) postulate that public information affects prices before anyone can trade on it. In contrast, several models assuming heterogeneous investors show that public news releases are directly followed by high trading volume. Empirical evidence on this question is still mixed, primarily due to the lack of sufficiently precise data. This paper examines the process of price adjustment to public news in an electronic limit order market, based on very precise information from the largest European bond futures market. The results show that the price response to public news is gradual and accompanied by trading. Good (bad) news releases are followed by a sequence of positive (negative) returns and a large buying (selling) activity in the first seconds after the news release. JEL Classification: E44, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Grothe, Magdalena, 2010. "Price and trading response to public information," Working Paper Series 1177, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101177
    Note: 1601201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1177.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    2. Lee, Charles M C & Mucklow, Belinda & Ready, Mark J, 1993. "Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 345-374.
    3. Frino, Alex & Hill, Amelia, 2001. "Intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Australian evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1319-1337, July.
    4. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2007. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 189-208, March.
    5. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    6. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The Processing of Non-Anticipated Information in Financial Markets: Analyzing the Impact of Surprises in the Employment Report," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(2), pages 133-161.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2623-2654 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    9. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    10. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    11. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    12. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    13. Franke, Gunter & Hess, Dieter, 2000. "Information diffusion in electronic and floor trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 455-478, December.
    14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Love, Ryan & Payne, Richard, 2008. "Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 467-488, June.
    16. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    19. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    20. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
    21. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    22. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    23. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
    3. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2012. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 337-355.
    4. Lin, Hai & Lo, Ingrid & Qiao, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic news announcements and market efficiency: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.
    6. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    7. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
    8. Erenburg, Grigori & Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2006. "Trading around macroeconomic announcements: Are all traders created equal?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 470-493, October.
    9. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2009. "Market Sidedness: Insights into Motives for Trade Initiation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 375-423, February.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2010. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 603-653, April.
    12. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    13. Martin Evans and Richard Lyons, 2007. "How Is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," Working Papers gueconwpa~07-07-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    16. Gilbert, Thomas, 2011. "Information aggregation around macroeconomic announcements: Revisions matter," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 114-131, July.
    17. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates? (December 2003)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-05, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    18. Brenner, Menachem & Pasquariello, Paolo & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2009. "On the Volatility and Comovement of U.S. Financial Markets around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1265-1289, December.
    19. Lee A. Smales & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Cameron D. Robertson, 2022. "One session options: Playing the announcement lottery?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 192-211, February.
    20. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Price formation and liquidity in the U.S. treasuries market: evidence from intraday patterns around announcements," Research Paper 9633, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information processing; macroeconomic announcements; market microstructure; price adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.