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Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies

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  • Beck, Roland
  • Rahbari, Ebrahim

Abstract

We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and "transaction demands" caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, the transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 24 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt to reserve ratios, introducing transactions demand has a relatively modest effect. We also find that euro and dollar bonds act as "safe haven currencies" during sudden stops. Dollars are better hedges for global sudden stops and for regional sudden stops in Asia and Latin America, while the euro is a better hedge for sudden stops in Emerging Europe. We reproduce qualitatively the recent decline in the share of the dollar in emerging market reserves and find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has very little importance for optimal reserve portfolios. JEL Classification: F31, F32, F33, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2008. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies," Working Paper Series 916, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008916
    Note: 597822
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    Cited by:

    1. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    2. Laser, Falk Hendrik & Weidner, Jan, 2020. "Currency compositions of international reserves and the euro crisis," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 238, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    3. Roland Beck & Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Should Larger Reserve Holdings Be More Diversified?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 415-444, December.
    4. Karel Brůna, 2010. "Akumulace devizových rezerv centrálních bank a dynamika absorpce likvidity bankovních systémů České republiky, Polska a Maďarska [Central Bank´s Foreign Exchange Reserves Accumulation and Dynamics ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(6), pages 723-746.
    5. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    7. Marie Brière & Zvi Bodie, 2014. "Sovereign Wealth and Risk Management: A Framework for Optimal Asset Allocation of Sovereign Wealth," Post-Print hal-01492603, HAL.
    8. Frank Moss, 2011. "The euro: internationalised at birth," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Currency internationalisation: lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific, volume 61, pages 57-74, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Édouard Vidon, 2009. "Monnaies de réserve et stabilité financière internationale," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 219-232.
    10. Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge & Marcin Wolski & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2014. "Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2014/081, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US‐Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, February.
    12. Andrew Sheng, 2012. "Opening remarks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial sector regulation for growth, equity and stability, volume 62, pages 41-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7874 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hasan Comert & Mehmet Selman Colak, 2014. "Can Financial Stability be Maintained in Developing Countries after the Global Crisis: The Role of External Financial Shocks?," ERC Working Papers 1411, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2015.
    15. Karel Bruna & Jaroslava Durc�kov�, 2012. "Banking system liquidity absorption and monetary base backing in the context of exchange rate policy in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 257-275, October.
    16. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    17. Ben Hassine Khalladi, hela, 2015. "Financial Crisis Management in Emerging Countries: Optimal Level of International Reserves and Ex Ante Conditions for an International Lender of Last Resort Intervention," MPRA Paper 96151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Zhang, Bin, 2011. "Is It Desirable for Asian Economies to Hold More Asian Assets in Their Foreign Exchange Reserves?—The People’s Republic of China’s Answer," ADBI Working Papers 306, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency composition; foreign exchange reserves; sudden stops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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