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The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data

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  • Mr. Ewe-Ghee Lim

Abstract

This paper examines opposing views on the euro's challenge to the dollar as an international currency. One view emphasizes Europe's large economy and diversification effects as undergirding a vigorous challenge. The other emphasizes "network externalities," particularly undergirding continued dollar dominance. The data to date support the second view but also show the euro has significantly overtaken the legacy currencies as a reserve currency. Generally, large economic size alone is insufficient to challenge the network externalities supporting vehicle currencies, but scope exists for the euro to advance as an international store of value. The paper discusses the euro's medium-term prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2006. "The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data," IMF Working Papers 2006/153, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/153
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    1. Hyoung-kyu Chey & Geun-Young Kim & Dong Hyun Lee, 2016. "Who Are the First Users of a Newly-Emerging International Currency? A Demand-Side Study of Chinese Renminbi Internationalization," Working Papers 2016-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    4. Onder BUBERKOKU, 2017. "ABD Dolarinin Emtia Fiyatlari Uzerindeki Etkisinin Incelenmesi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 323-336.
    5. Aideen Morahan & Mr. Christian B. Mulder, 2013. "Survey of Reserve Managers: Lessons from the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/099, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Giovanni Pittaluga & Elena Seghezza, 2012. "Euro vs Dollar: An Improbable Threat," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 89-108, February.
    7. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2013. "The Concepts, Consequences, and Determinants of Currency Internationalization," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    8. Fritz Breuss & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2009. "Global impact of a shift in foreign reserves to euros," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-122, February.
    9. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:47:y:2009:i::p:741-766 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. André Cartapanis, 2009. "Le dollar incontesté ? Économie politique d’une monnaie internationale," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 135-150.
    11. Ponsot, Jean-François, 2016. "The “four I's” of the international monetary system and the international role of the euro," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 299-308.
    12. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2011. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1107-1127, October.
    13. Thammarak Moenjak & Kengjai Watjanapukka & Oramone Chantapant & Teeravit Pobsukhirun, 2010. "New Globalization: Risks and Opportunities for Thailand in the Next Decade," Working Papers 2010-04, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    14. Christian Thimann, 2010. "Global Roles of Currencies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu (ed.), Currency Internationalization: Global Experiences and Implications for the Renminbi, chapter 1, pages 3-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Sheng, Andrew & Kwek, Kian-Teng & Cho, Cho-Wai, 2009. "A tale of Asian exchange rate management: Romance of the three currencies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-535, September.
    16. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Čeč, Tanja, 2010. "Compositional Analysis Of Foreign Currency Reserves In The 1999-2007 Period. The Euro Vs. The Dollar As Leading Reserve Currency," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 165-181, March.
    17. Virginie Coudert, 2009. "Mythes et réalités de la « zone dollar »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 151-169.
    18. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US‐Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, February.
    19. Vivekanand Jayakumar & Barbara Weiss, 2011. "Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(1), pages 92-130, March.
    20. Mr. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2007. "Do Reserve Portfolios Respond to Exchange Rate Changes Using a Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy? An Econometric Study Using COFER Data," IMF Working Papers 2007/293, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Anna Wong, 2007. "Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification," Working Paper Series WP07-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    22. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2008. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies," Working Paper Series 916, European Central Bank.
    23. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. Benjamin J. Cohen, 2009. "Dollar Dominance, Euro Aspirations: Recipe for Discord?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 741-766, September.
    25. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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