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Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area

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  • McAdam, Peter
  • Willman, Alpo

Abstract

We develop a framework for analyzing "medium-run" departures from balanced growth, and apply it to the economies of continental Europe. A time-varying factor-augmenting production function (mimicking "directed" technical change) with a below-unitary substitution elasticity coupled with supporting short-run factor demands (and price setting) is shown to account for the observed dynamics of factor incomes shares, capital deepening and the capital-output ratio. Based on careful data accounting, we also identify a rising mark-up, which we ascribe to the rise of Services. The balanced growth path emerges as a special (and testable) case of our framework, as do existing strands of medium-run debates. JEL Classification: C22, E23, E25, O30, O51

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2008. "Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area," Working Paper Series 915, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008915
    Note: 50336
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    2. Alistair DIEPPE & Alberto GONZÁLEZ PANDIELLA & Stephen HALL & Alpo WILLMAN, 2010. "MEMBER: Multi-Country Euro Area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality," EcoMod2010 259600046, EcoMod.
    3. Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 153-171, February.
    4. Niels Kemper & Dierk Herzer & Luca Zamparelli, 2011. "Balanced growth and structural breaks: evidence for Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 409-424, April.
    5. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0177 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Phillips-Curve Dynamics: Mark-Up Cyclicality, Effective Hours and Regime-Dependency," Kiel Working Papers 1359, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    9. Torsten Schmidt & Helmut Hofer & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0177, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    adjustment costs; Effective Labor Hours.; Elasticity of Substitution; euro area; Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress; income distribution; Medium Run; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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