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U.S. Exchange Rates and Currency Flows

Author

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  • Rime, Dagfinn

    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

Abstract

After the Meese & Rogoff 1983-results, researchers have searched with torch for macroeconomic variables with predictive power on horizons shorter than 6 months. Recently, several papers have showed that order flows influence exchange rates intradaily. Maybe order flow may be of importance also for lower frequencies than intraday, like the weekly frequency? In this paper I test a trading model where order flow may be informative due to the existence of private information, and where there are important macroeconomic public information as well. Using weekly data for spot and options trading in the U.S., the model is tested for five exchange rates against US Dollar. For three of the exchange rates, DEM/USD, GBP/USD and CHF/USD, I find that order flow is an important variable for explaining weekly changes in exchange rates. The coefficients are both statistically and economically significant, and have intuitive sign. When U.S. banks sell foreign currency, the foreign currency depreciates.

Suggested Citation

  • Rime, Dagfinn, 2001. "U.S. Exchange Rates and Currency Flows," SIFR Research Report Series 4, Institute for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    2. Boyer, M. Martin & van Norden, Simon, 2006. "Exchange rates and order flow in the long run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 235-243, December.
    3. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    5. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Zhang, Guangfeng & Zhang, Qiong & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2013. "Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting: Can the Microstructure Approach Rescue Us from the Exchange Rate Disparity?," MPRA Paper 57673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
    8. Kate Phylaktis & Long Chen, 2010. "Asymmetric information, price discovery and macroeconomic announcements in FX market: do top trading banks know more?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 228-246.
    9. Castrén, Olli, 2004. "Do financial market variables show (symmetric) indicator properties relative to exchange rate returns?," Working Paper Series 379, European Central Bank.
    10. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The nominal rand/dollar exchange rate: before and after 1995," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 105-117, June.
    12. Castrén, Olli & Osbat, Chiara & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives investors' behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange; International Macroeconomics; Microstructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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