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Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators

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  • Pérez, Javier J.

Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez, Javier J., 2005. "Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators," Working Paper Series 497, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Isabel Argimón & Francisco Martí, 2007. "Available data on-budget and off-budget activities of Spanish central, state and local governments," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 43-54, December.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2006. "Is the budget deficit sustainable when fiscal policy is non-linear? The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 596-608, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; Leading indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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