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Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?

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  • Barnett, Alina

    (Bank of England)

  • Thomas, Ryland

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit demand and supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during both the recent financial crisis and the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural vector autoregression analysis to identify separate credit demand and supply shocks in addition to the standard macroeconomic shocks that are typically analysed in this framework. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the crisis and between a third and a half of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks appear to behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks because they cause output and inflation to move in opposite directions. This may be because credit supply shocks affect potential supply in the economy or because they have a significant exchange rate effect. The results appear robust to different identifying assumptions. The main sensitivity appears to be when spreads are treated as a non-stationary variable and long-run restrictions are placed on the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0482
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    2. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    3. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Falagiarda, Matteo, 2014. "Credit supply dynamics and economic activity in euro area countries: a time-varying parameter VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1714, European Central Bank.
    4. Chowla, Shiv & Quaglietti, Lucia & Rachel, Lukasz, 2014. "How have world shocks affected the UK economy?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 167-179.
    5. Butt, Nick & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "Credit spreads: capturing credit conditions facing households and firms," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(2), pages 137-148.
    6. Reichenbachas Tomas, 2017. "Credit-Related Shocks in VAR models: The Case of Lithuania," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(3), pages 7-19, January.
    7. Vacca, Valerio Paolo & Bichlmeier, Fabian & Biraschi, Paolo & Boschi, Natalie & Álvarez, Antonio J. Bravo & Di Primio, Luciano & Ebner, André & Hoeretzeder, Silvia & Ballesteros, Elisa Llorente & Mian, 2021. "Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy: an EU-wide analytical framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 122, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Jeremy Franklin & May Rostom & Gregory Thwaites, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the UK," Discussion Papers 1525, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Franklin, Jeremy & Rostom, May & Thwaites, Gregory, 2015. "The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 557, Bank of England.
    10. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2014. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing," Bank of England working papers 494, Bank of England.
    11. Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon & Young, Garry, 2018. "A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: Forecasting and structural identification," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Cloyne, James & Thomas, Ryland & Tuckett, Alex & Wills, Samuel, 2015. "A sectoral framework for analyzing money, credit and unconventional monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 556, Bank of England.
    13. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Budnik, Katarzyna & Groß, Johannes & Vagliano, Gianluca & Dimitrov, Ivan & Lampe, Max & Panos, Jiri & Velasco, Sofia & Boucherie, Louis & Jančoková, Martina, 2023. "BEAST: A model for the assessment of system-wide risks and macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 2855, European Central Bank.
    16. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    17. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    18. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
    19. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
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    21. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    22. Clavero, Borja, 2017. "A contribution to the Quantity Theory of Disaggregated Credit," MPRA Paper 76657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply shocks; Financial and macro linkages; Bayesian SVARs; sign restrictions; long-run restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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