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Forecasting Conditional Covariance Matrices in High-Dimensional Time Series: a General Dynamic Factor Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Hallin
  • Luis K. Hotta
  • João H. G Mazzeu
  • Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza
  • Pedro L. Valls Pereira
  • Mauricio Zevallos

Abstract

Based on a General Dynamic Factor Model with infinite-dimensional factor space, we develop a new estimation and forecasting procedures for conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series. The performance of our approach is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments, outperforming many alternative methods. The new procedure is used to construct minimum variance portfolios for a high-dimensional panel of assets. The results are shown to achieve better out-of-sample portfolio performance than alternative existing procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Hallin & Luis K. Hotta & João H. G Mazzeu & Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Mauricio Zevallos, 2019. "Forecasting Conditional Covariance Matrices in High-Dimensional Time Series: a General Dynamic Factor Approach," Working Papers ECARES 2019-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/288066
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc & Luciani, Matteo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2024. "Inferential theory for generalized dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    3. Trucíos, Carlos & Mazzeu, João H.G. & Hotta, Luiz K. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & Hallin, Marc, 2021. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: Identification, estimation, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1520-1534.
    4. Marc Hallin & Carlos Trucíos, 2020. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in Large Portfolios: a General Dynamic Factor Approach," Working Papers ECARES 2020-50, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    Keywords

    Dimension reduction; Large panels; High-dimensional time series; Minimum variance portfolio; Volatility; Multivariate GARCH;
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