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Decision Theory Made Relevant: Between the Software and the Shrink

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  • Gilboa, Itzhak
  • Rouziou, Maria
  • Sibony, Olivier

Abstract

Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the “right” answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the “correct’’ answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker’s intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn’t replace intuition, but supports and refines it.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilboa, Itzhak & Rouziou, Maria & Sibony, Olivier, 2018. "Decision Theory Made Relevant: Between the Software and the Shrink," HEC Research Papers Series 1266, HEC Paris.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1266
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3178715
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    1. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 755-770, March.
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    1. Lucas Schmeling & Patrik Schönfeldt & Peter Klement & Steffen Wehkamp & Benedikt Hanke & Carsten Agert, 2020. "Development of a Decision-Making Framework for Distributed Energy Systems in a German District," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Peter Klement & Tobias Brandt & Lucas Schmeling & Antonieta Alcorta de Bronstein & Steffen Wehkamp & Fernando Andres Penaherrera Vaca & Mathias Lanezki & Patrik Schönfeldt & Alexander Hill & Nemanja K, 2022. "Local Energy Markets in Action: Smart Integration of National Markets, Distributed Energy Resources and Incentivisation to Promote Citizen Participation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Philipp Eisenhauer & Janos Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 082, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Eisenhauer, Philipp & Gabler, Janos & Janys, Lena, 2021. "Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 14317, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Philipp Eisenhauer & Lena Janys & Christopher Walsh & Janós Gabler, 2023. "Structural Models for Policy-Making," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_484, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision theory; decision maker’s intuition;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

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