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Is Imbalances And Current Account Surpluses In Japan: In Memory Of Professor Ronald I. Mckinnon

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  • CHARLES YUJI HORIOKA

    (Asian Growth Research Institute, 11-4, Ohtemachi, Kokurakita-ku, Kitakyashu, Fukuoka 803-0814, Japan2National Bureau of Economic Research and Institute of Social and Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States)

Abstract

In this paper, I find (1) that Japan showed massive and persistent current account surpluses from at least 1981 until at least 2011, (2) that Professor Ronald McKinnon was correct, at least in the case of Japan, and that these large and persistent current account surpluses were due primarily to Japan’s large and persistent IS imbalances (the excess of saving over investment), (3) that the specific causes of the IS imbalances have changed dramatically over time, and (4) that future trends in Japan’s IS imbalances (current account surpluses) are difficult to project but that they will probably not change dramatically in either direction in the foreseeable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Yuji Horioka, 2016. "Is Imbalances And Current Account Surpluses In Japan: In Memory Of Professor Ronald I. Mckinnon," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:02:n:s0217590816400208
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816400208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Fumio Hayashi, 1986. "Why Is Japan's Saving Rate So Apparently High?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 147-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, April.
    4. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2000. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of the Age Structure of the Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 511-516, August.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2008. "The Flow of Household Funds in Japan," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 4(1), pages 37-52, December.
    7. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35, April.
    8. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1996. "The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133180, April.
    9. Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IS imbalances; IS balances; saving-investment balances; global imbalances; current account surpluses; current account balances; trade balances; saving; household saving; corporate saving; government saving; investment; population aging; Ronald McKinnon; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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