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Importance of Skewness in Decision Making: Evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

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  • Narayan, Paresh
  • Ali Ahmed, Huson

Abstract

In this paper our goal is to examine the importance of skewness in decision making, in particular on investor utility. We use time-series daily data on sectoral stock returns on the Indian stock exchange. We test for sectoral stock return predictability using commonly used financial ratios, namely, the book-to-market, dividend yield and price-earnings ratio. We find strong evidence of predictability. Using this evidence of predictability, we forecast sectoral stock returns for each of the sectors in our sample, allowing us to devise trading strategies that account for skewness of returns. We discover evidence that accounting for skewness leads not only to higher utility compared to a model that ignores skewness, but utility is sector-dependent.

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  • Narayan, Paresh & Ali Ahmed, Huson, 2014. "Importance of Skewness in Decision Making: Evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange," Working Papers fe_2014_11, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2014_11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2014.10.006
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    26. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "Can institutions and macroeconomic factors predict stock returns in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 77-95.
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali & Sharma, Susan Sunila & K.P., Prabheesh, 2014. "How profitable is the Indian stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 44-61.
    2. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2016. "Industry returns, market returns and economic fundamentals: Evidence for the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 89-106.
    3. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Oil price and automobile stock return co-movement: A wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-181.
    4. Malvika Saraf & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "How Much Does Volatility Influence Stock Market Returns? – Empirical Evidence from India," Working Papers 2022-215, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    5. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Asset allocation and investment opportunities in emerging stock markets: Evidence from return asymmetry-based analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 187-200.
    6. Katircioglu, Setareh & Katircioglu, Salih, 2023. "The effects of environmental taxation on stock returns of renewable energy producers: Evidence from Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 311-323.
    7. Seema REHMAN & Saqib SHARIF & Wali ULLAH, 2021. "Higher Realized Moments and Stock Return Predictability," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 48-70, December.
    8. Chundakkadan, Radeef & Sasidharan, Subash, 2020. "Central bank's liquidity provision and firms' financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 245-255.
    9. Li, Tianyu & Yue, Xiao-Guang & Waheed, Humayun & Yıldırım, Bilal, 2023. "Can energy efficiency and natural resources foster economic growth? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2018. "A new GARCH model with higher moments for stock return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 93-103.
    12. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Is the profitability of Indian stocks compensation for risks?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 47-64.

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    Keywords

    Returns; Skewness; Predictability; Utility; Investor.;
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