IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v48y2017icp160-177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can investors gain from investing in certain sectors?

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Ahmed, Huson Ali
  • Narayan, Seema

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse investor behaviour on the NYSE. We show that average returns from dynamic trading strategies, regardless of the different portfolio constraints, out-perform passive trading strategies in all sectors. In addition, the performance of dynamic strategies is much more impressive in some sectors than in others. We also undertake a profitability and safety analysis based on a portfolio of high-performing sectors and show that at higher levels of expected returns, a rise in profitability comes at the expense of less safety. Our results, on the whole, reveal that investors’ can gain substantially by investing in certain sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali & Narayan, Seema, 2017. "Can investors gain from investing in certain sectors?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 160-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:160-177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2017.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443117300343
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    4. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    5. Marquering, Wessel & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 407-429, June.
    6. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    7. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
    8. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    9. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh Narayan, 2015. "A Random Coefficient Approach to the Predictability of Stock Returns in Panels," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 605-664.
    10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "Do order imbalances predict Chinese stock returns? New evidence from intraday data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-151.
    12. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
    13. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    14. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & K.P, Prabheesh, 2014. "Stock returns, mutual fund flows and spillover shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 146-162.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
    17. Kinateder, Harald & Hofstetter, Benedikt & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Do liquidity variables improve out-of-sample prediction of sovereign spreads during crisis periods?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 144-150.
    18. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 259-267.
    19. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
    20. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
    21. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    22. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    24. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    25. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
    26. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    27. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    28. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    29. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
    30. Jayawardena, Nirodha I. & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Su, Jen-Je, 2016. "Forecasting stock volatility using after-hour information: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 592-608.
    31. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2015. "Are Indian stock returns predictable?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 506-531.
    32. Deepa & Paresh K Narayan, "undated". "Are Indian Stock Returns Predictable?," Working Papers 2015_07, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    33. Gang Li, 2016. "Noisy information and stock market returns," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(3), pages 338-358, August.
    34. Kumar, Dilip, 2015. "Sudden changes in extreme value volatility estimator: Modeling and forecasting with economic significance analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 354-371.
    35. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
    36. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    37. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
    38. Ballestero, Enrique & Pla-Santamaria, David, 2004. "Selecting portfolios for mutual funds," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, October.
    39. Burns, Kelly & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Enhancing the forecasting power of exchange rate models by introducing nonlinearity: Does it work?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loban, Lidia & Sarto, José Luis & Vicente, Luis, 2021. "Determinants of non-compliant equity funds with EU portfolio concentration limits," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Pham, Quynh Thi Thuy, 2021. "Stock Return Predictability: Evidence Across US Industries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Structural instability and predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
    5. Cumming, Douglas & Fleming, Grant & Liu, Zhangxin (Frank), 2018. "Shadow banking in Asia: Foreign versus domestic lending to real estate projects," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 137-147.
    6. Bessler, Wolfgang & Taushanov, Georgi & Wolff, Dominik, 2021. "Optimal asset allocation strategies for international equity portfolios: A comparison of country versus industry optimization," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Lai, Ming-Ming & Tey, Eng-Xin & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2020. "Testing the performance of technical analysis and sentiment-TAR trading rules in the Malaysian stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "Is stock return predictability time-varying?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 152-172.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Is the profitability of Indian stocks compensation for risks?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 47-64.
    10. Zhifeng Dai & Huiting Zhou, 2020. "Prediction of Stock Returns: Sum-of-the-Parts Method and Economic Constraint Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-13, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
    2. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
    3. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2015. "Are Indian stock returns predictable?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 506-531.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Westerlund, Joakim, 2015. "Do order imbalances predict Chinese stock returns? New evidence from intraday data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 136-151.
    6. repec:grz:wpaper:2012-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp2:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    9. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    10. Jurdi, Doureige & Kim, Jae, 2019. "Predicting the U.S. Stock Market Return: Evidence from the Improved Augmented Regression Method," MPRA Paper 94028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
    12. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
    13. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Akanni, Lateef O., 2019. "Improving the predictability of stock returns with Bitcoin prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 857-867.
    17. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
    18. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022. "Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
    19. Faias, José Afonso, 2023. "Predicting the equity risk premium using the smooth cross-sectional tail risk: The importance of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    21. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Structural instability and predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    22. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh, 2016. "Testing for predictability in panels of any time series dimension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1162-1177.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:160-177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.