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The Differential Influence of Women's Residential District on Their Risk of Entering Motherhood and First Marriage: A Discrete-Time Multilevel Analysis of Western German Panel Data, 1984 - 1999

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  • Karsten Hank

Abstract

To begin with, we sketch a general multilevel model of regional social contexts and individual family formation behavior, where particular attention is paid to the determinants of the actor's situation. Then a set of bridge hypotheses is proposed, on which the empirical investigation of the relationship between properties of the spatial context and women's entry into motherhood and first marriage is based. Individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) are merged with a rich set of district-level contextual data to estimate first birth and marriage probabilities of western German women during the 1980s and 1990s. None of the estimated multilevel discrete-time logit models provides conclusive evidence for an autonomous contextual influence on women's entry into parenthood. We find, however, a persistent regional effect on the risk of entering first marriage, which we attribute to local nuptiality customs. Variations therein, e.g. regarding the timing of marriage, must probably be understood as the principal origin of different patterns of fertility across western German districts.

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  • Karsten Hank, 2002. "The Differential Influence of Women's Residential District on Their Risk of Entering Motherhood and First Marriage: A Discrete-Time Multilevel Analysis of Western German Panel Data, 1984 - 1999," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 274, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp274
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    1. Ansley Coale, 1992. "Age of entry into marriage and the date of the initiation of voluntary birth control," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(3), pages 333-341, August.
    2. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Donna Ginther & Robert Haveman & Barbara Wolfe, 2000. "Neighborhood Attributes as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(4), pages 603-642.
    4. Dirk Konietzka & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2001. "Non-marital births in East Germany after unification," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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