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Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

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Abstract

This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989-1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five different time-series indicators whether there is among investors an expectation of a speculative bubble, an unstable situation with expectations for increase in the short run only, are produced. Four different time-series indicators whether there is an expectation of a negative speculative bubble are presented. Four different time-series indicators of investor confidence, that nothing can go wrong, are produced. Time-series variation for these indicators is significant, and cross correlations are generally positive. A bubble expectations index, a negative-bubble expectations index, and an investor confidence index are derived from these indicators. Behavior of the indicators and indexes through time is examined, and the indexes are compared with other economic variables. A notable finding is a degree of high-frequency fluctuation, semester to semester, in the indexes.

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  • Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1212, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1212
    Note: CFP 1004.
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    1. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1996. "Market timing ability and volatility implied in investment newsletters' asset allocation recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 397-421, November.
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    4. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. "Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index? A Rejoinder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 809-810, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    2. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    3. Kerim Eser AFÞAR & Zakayo S. KISAVA, 2018. "The analysis of bubbles and crashes on financial markets for emerging economies: Evidenced From BRICS," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Takato Hiraki & Noriyoshi Shiraishi & Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Investor Sentiment in Japanese and U.S. Daily Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm274, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    6. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2011-05, May.
    8. Mr. Subir Lall & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2009/100, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857.
    10. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    11. Cavalcante, Mileno, 2008. "Preços do petróleo e bolhas especulativas: algumas evidências para o mercado de WTI [Crude oil prices and speculative bubbles: evidence from the WTI market]," MPRA Paper 28582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rani Hoitash & Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, 2008. "Herding, momentum and investor over-reaction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 25-47, January.
    13. Pereda, Javier, 2012. "Price – Earnings Ratio for the Lima Stock Exchange: Issues and Applications," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 17(32), pages 41-52.
    14. Arnswald, Torsten, 2001. "Investment Behaviour of German Equity Fund Managers - An Exploratory Analysis of Survey Data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    16. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

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