IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksp/journ2/v5y2018i1p1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The analysis of bubbles and crashes on financial markets for emerging economies: Evidenced From BRICS

Author

Listed:
  • Kerim Eser AFÞAR

    (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey)

  • Zakayo S. KISAVA

    (Graduate School of Social Science, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey.)

Abstract

The study was conducted to analyze the bubbles, and crashes on the financial market in emerging economies; (BRICS) stock prices were employed to detect the existence of the bursting bubble. The Right-tailed Augment Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test used to complete the study of analyzing bubbles and crashes. The study consists of four primary tests; ADF, RADF, SADF, and GSADF Moreover, the study used the first three criteria. The survey covered the period from 2000 to 2016, to absorb the nuclear currently financial crisis in the BRICS and analyze its impacts. Also, this period coincides with both economic reforms in some countries like China and early indications of an impending US crisis. The findings in all countries rejected the null hypothesis of no bursting bubbles in the stock market in favor of the alternative theory. The findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in stock prices of traded goods. The result has economic policy importance and implications on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerim Eser AFÞAR & Zakayo S. KISAVA, 2018. "The analysis of bubbles and crashes on financial markets for emerging economies: Evidenced From BRICS," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:5:y:2018:i:1:p:1-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/download/1569/1572
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/TER/article/view/1569
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers CoFie-03-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    3. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    6. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    8. Taisei Kaizoji, 2005. "Statistical Properties of Absolute Log-Returns and a Stochastic Model of Stock Markets with Heterogeneous Agents," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Thomas Lux & Eleni Samanidou & Stefan Reitz (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, pages 237-248, Springer.
    9. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
    10. Taisei Kaizoji, 2005. "A Precursor of Market Crashes," Papers physics/0510055, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2006.
    11. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Shocks, Crashes and Bubbles in Financial Markets," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 53(2), pages 201-253.
    12. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. "Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-2090, December.
    13. Taisei Kaizoji, 2006. "Statistical properties of absolute log-returns and a stochastic model of stock markets with heterogeneous agents," Papers physics/0603139, arXiv.org.
    14. T. Kaizoji, 2006. "A precursor of market crashes: Empirical laws of Japan's internet bubble," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 50(1), pages 123-127, March.
    15. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    16. Robert J. Shiller, 1999. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," NBER Working Papers 7008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    2. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo.
    4. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    6. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Modeling speculative bubbles with diverse investor expectations," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 375-387.
    7. Asako, Kazumi & Liu, Zhentao, 2013. "A statistical model of speculative bubbles, with applications to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2639-2651.
    8. Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
    9. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    10. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick, 2016. "The shine of precious metals around the global financial crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 717-738.
    11. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Cervera, Ignacio & Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2024. "Credit risk and bubble behavior of credit default swaps in the corporate energy sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 702-731.
    14. Lui, Yiu Lim & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2024. "Robust testing for explosive behavior with strongly dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    15. Esteve Vicente & Prats Maria A., 2021. "Structural Breaks and Explosive Behavior in the Long-Run: The Case of Australian Real House Prices, 1870–2020," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 72-84, January.
    16. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Diagnostics of Rational Expectation Financial Bubbles with Stochastic Mean-Reverting Termination Times," Papers 0911.1921, arXiv.org.
    17. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lin, Yu-Hui & Tseng, Chun-Yao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2015. "Bubbles in health care: Evidence from the U.S., U.K., and German stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-205.
    18. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Farooq Anwar, 2020. "Do stock price bubbles correlate between China and Pakistan? An inquiry of pre‐ and post‐Chinese investment in Pakistani capital market under China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor regime," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 323-335, July.
    19. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    20. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BRICS; Emerging economies; Financial bubble and crashes; Right-tailed ADF; Stock price.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ2:v:5:y:2018:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kspjournals.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.