IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/36251.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models

Author

Listed:
  • Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar
  • Fresoli, Diego Eduardo

Abstract

In economics, Principal Components, its generalized version that takes into account heteroscedasticity, and Kalman filter and smoothing procedures are among the most popular procedures for factor extraction in the context of Dynamic Factor Models. This paper analyses the consequences on point and interval factor estimation of using these procedures when the idiosyncratic components are wrongly assumed to be cross-sectionally uncorrelated. We show that not taking into account the presence of cross-sectional dependence increases the uncertainty of point estimates of the factors. Furthermore, the Mean Square Errors computed using the usual expressions based on asymptotic approximations, are underestimated and may lead to prediction intervals with extremely low coverages.

Suggested Citation

  • Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar & Fresoli, Diego Eduardo, 2022. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 36251, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:36251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/4b5113cd-9458-412b-a3dc-24d8cab29477/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Kunpeng Li, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference for Approximate Factor Models of High Dimension," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 298-309, May.
    2. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Wang, Fa, 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for high dimensional nonlinear factor models with application to factor-augmented regressions," MPRA Paper 93484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 May 2019.
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Li, Kunpeng & Li, Qi & Lu, Lina, 2018. "Quasi maximum likelihood analysis of high dimensional constrained factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 574-612.
    5. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    6. Jushan Bai & Kunpeng Li & Lina Lu, 2016. "Estimation and Inference of FAVAR Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 620-641, October.
    7. Wang, Fa, 2022. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for high dimensional generalized factor models with application to factor-augmented regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 180-200.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    9. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    10. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc & Luciani, Matteo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2024. "Inferential theory for generalized dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    11. Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Efficient estimation of heterogeneous coefficients in panel data models with common shock," MPRA Paper 59312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Poncela, Pilar, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Brownlees, Christian & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "Detecting granular time series in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 544-561.
    15. Jin, Sainan & Miao, Ke & Su, Liangjun, 2021. "On factor models with random missing: EM estimation, inference, and cross validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 745-777.
    16. Hörmann, Siegfried & Jammoul, Fatima, 2022. "Consistently recovering the signal from noisy functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Fresoli, Diego & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2023. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & Olivier Scaillet, 2023. "Latent Factor Analysis in Short Panels," Papers 2306.14004, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    19. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EM Algorithm;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:36251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.