IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/whrepe/36431.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How many people on earth? World population 1800-1938

Author

Listed:
  • Federico, Giovanni

Abstract

The number of people is one of the most basic information about any society but it is difficult to know it. The data are missing for most of human history and scarce and/or hardly reliable for advanced countries until the early 19th century and for the rest of the world until the mid-20th century. Yet, historical demographers have tried hard and often successfully to estimate population in the past, but their results have often been neglected in the most common general historical data-bases. Thus, we do not have a continuous series of world population at least until World War One if not until 1950. In this paper we fill this gap by re-estimating series of population for all polities from 1800 to 1938 using first-hand sources and country-specific literature. We use our series to address two issues which have attracted some attention by economist and economic historians in the last years, the start of the demographic transition and the impact of major demographic crises such as the Tai'ping civil war, World War One and the Spanish flu.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Giovanni, 2023. "How many people on earth? World population 1800-1938," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 36431, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:36431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/50871f52-c83e-4127-823d-9d6fc6469373/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Kimberly V. Smith, 2010. "Modern Medicine and the Twentieth Century Decline in Mortality: Evidence on the Impact of Sulfa Drugs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 118-146, April.
    2. E. A. Wrigley, 1998. "Explaining the rise in marital fertility in England in the ‘long’ eighteenth century," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 51(3), pages 435-464, August.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    4. Jan Ditzen & Yiannis Karavias & Joakim Westerlund, 2021. "Testing and Estimating Structural Breaks in Time Series and Panel Data in Stata," Papers 2110.14550, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    5. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    6. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    7. Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2020. "From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1170, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David E. Bloom & Dara Lee Luca, 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future," PGDA Working Papers 13016, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    3. Marein, Brian, 2023. "Public health departments and the mortality transition in Latin America: Evidence from Puerto Rico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    5. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2021. "Augmented human development in the age of globalization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 946-975, November.
    6. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2015. "World Human Development: 1870–2007," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 220-247, June.
    8. Philipp Ager & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2018. "Fertility and Early-Life Mortality: Evidence from Smallpox Vaccination in Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 487-521.
    9. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Venkataramani, Atheendar, 2011. "The Captain of the Men of Death and His Shadow: Long-Run Impacts of Early Life Pneumonia Exposure," IZA Discussion Papers 6041, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren, 2018. "Explaining declines in US rural mortality, 1910–1933: The role of county health departments," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 42-72.
    11. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2014. "Cause of death and development in the US," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 143-153.
    13. Fumagalli, Elena & Pinna Pintor, M & Suhrcke, Marc, 2024. "The impact of health on economic growth: A narrative literature review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
    15. Stefan Bauernschuster & Anastasia Driva & Erik Hornung, 2020. "Bismarck’s Health Insurance and the Mortality Decline [Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2561-2607.
    16. Caroline Chuard & Hannes Schwandt & Alexander D. Becker & Masahiko Haraguchi, 2022. "Economic vs. Epidemiological Approaches to Measuring the Human Capital Impacts of Infectious Disease Elimination," NBER Working Papers 30202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Relationship Between Health and Growth: When Lucas Meets Nelson-Phelps," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(1).
    18. Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017. "The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(42), pages 1255-1298.
    19. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 189-225, July.
    20. Marcella Alsan & Vincenzo Atella & Jay Bhattacharya & Valentina Conti & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Grant Miller, 2019. "Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Post-War Italy," NBER Working Papers 25541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Population Dataset;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:36431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/instituto_figuerola .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.