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Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Serge Darolles

    (Paris-Dauphine University and CREST)

  • Patrick Gagliardini

    (University of Lugano)

  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (CREST and University of Toronto)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the dependence between the liquidation risks of individual hedge funds. This dependence can result either from common exogenous shocks (shared frailty), or from contagion phenomena, which occur when an endogenous behaviour of a fund manager impacts the Net Asset Values of other funds. We introduce dynamic models able to distinguish between frailty and contagion phenomena, and test for the presence of such dependence effects, according to the age and management style of the fund. We demonstrate the empirical relevance of our approach by measuring the magnitudes of contagion and exogenous frailty in liquidation risk dependence in the TASS database. The empirical analysis is completed by stress-tests on portfolios of hedge funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Darolles & Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion," Working Papers 2012-36, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. C. Gouriéroux & J.‐C. Héam & A. Monfort, 2012. "Bilateral exposures and systemic solvency risk," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1309, November.
    2. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2013. "Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2241-2269.
    3. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.P., 2014. "Pricing default events: Surprise, exogeneity and contagion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 397-411.
    4. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2019. "Identification by Laplace transforms in nonlinear time series and panel models with unobserved stochastic dynamic effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 613-637.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge Fund; Liquidation Correlation; Frailty; Contagion; Dynamic Count Model; Autoregressive Gamma Process; Systemic Risk; Stress-tests; Liquidation Swap; Funding Liquidity; Market Liquidity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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