IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cre/crefwp/95.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indirect Inference, Nuisance Parameter and Threshold Moving Average

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We analyse the modifications that occur in indirect inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. We develop a testing procedure adapted to this simulation based estimation method, and detail its use for detecting the threshold effect in threshold moving average models with contemporaneous and lagged asymetries. In contrast to existing threshold models, these models allow to take into account the presence of asymetric effects of current and lagged random shocks on US GNP growth rates. Nous analysons les modifications à apporter à la méthode d'inférence indirecte lorsqu'un paramètre de nuisance n'est pas identifié sous l'hypothèse nulle. Nous développons une procédure de test adaptée à cette méthode d'estimation fondée sur des simulations, et détaillons son utilisation dans la détection de l'effet de seuil dans des modèles moyennes mobiles à seuils avec asymétries contemporaines et retardées. Par rapport aux autres modèles à seuils existants, ces modèles permettent de prendre en compte la présence d'effets asymétriques des chocs courants et retardés sur la série de taux de croissance du PNB américain.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Guay & Olivier Scaillet, 1999. "Indirect Inference, Nuisance Parameter and Threshold Moving Average," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 95, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    • Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:95
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unites.uqam.ca/eco/CREFE/cahiers/cah95.ps
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.unites.uqam.ca/eco/CREFE/cahiers/cah95.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    2. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
    3. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
    6. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Babsiri, Mohamed El & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2001. "Contemporaneous asymmetry in GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 257-294, April.
    9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    10. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1995. "Testing, Encompassing, and Simulating Dynamic Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 195-228, February.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:195-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    14. repec:crs:wpaper:9837 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2011. "Simulation based estimation of threshold moving average models with contemporaneous shock asymmetry," MPRA Paper 34302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Roxana Halbleib & David Veredas, 2012. "Which model to match?," Working Papers 1229, Banco de España.
    3. Grassi, Stefano & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2015. "It's all about volatility of volatility: Evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 62-78.
    4. Catherine Bruneau & Amine Lahiani, 2006. "Estimation d'un modèle TIMA avec asymétrie contemporaine par inférence indirecte," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 479-500, December.
    5. Lahiani, A. & Scaillet, O., 2009. "Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 418-428.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2004. "Testing For Structural Change In The Presence Of Auxiliary Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1168-1202, December.
    2. Catherine Bruneau & Amine Lahiani, 2006. "Estimation d'un modèle TIMA avec asymétrie contemporaine par inférence indirecte," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(IV), pages 479-500, December.
    3. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Working Papers 9821, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    4. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
    5. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    6. Sen, Amit & Hall, Alastair, 1999. "Two further aspects of some new tests for structural stability," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 431-443, December.
    7. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    9. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    10. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    11. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    12. Delgado, Miguel A. & Fiteni, Inmaculada, 2002. "External bootstrap tests for parameter stability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 275-303, August.
    13. Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Chi-square Tests for Parameter Stability," RCER Working Papers 508, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    14. repec:bla:ecorec:v:91:y:2015:i::p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
    16. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
    17. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1992. "An Introduction to Econometric Applications of Functional Limit Theory for Dependent Random Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1020, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 2006. "Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 136-150, March.
    19. Taştan, Hüseyin, 2011. "Simulation based estimation of threshold moving average models with contemporaneous shock asymmetry," MPRA Paper 34302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Is it possible to discriminate between different switching regressions models? An empirical investigation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00368358, HAL.
    21. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1998. "Structural Stability Tests with Unknown Breakpoint for the Efficient Method of Moments with Application to Stochastic Volatility Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-055/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    threshold model; indirect inference; nuisance parameter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stéphane Pallage (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crefeca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.