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The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets

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  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Christian Gross
  • Waldemar Souza

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the Brazilian futures exchange, BM&F Bovespa, in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee. Using a multivariate GARCH model we find bi-directional information transmission in terms of spillover effects between the BM&F Bovespa futures contract for Arabica coffee and the Coffee C' futures contract traded at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York. Moreover, our empirical results indicate that the influence of the BM&F Bovespa futures market on the ICE futures market increased during the 2010-2012 boom in co ee prices, suggesting a greater role of local information for volatility dynamics during this period. We also show that local Brazilian spot markets incorporate information from both the domestic and the foreign futures market. Taken together, our findings highlight the great relevance of the BM&F Bovespa futures market in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Christian Gross & Waldemar Souza, 2016. "The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets," CQE Working Papers 5116, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5116
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    Cited by:

    1. Casagranda, Yasmin Gomes & Casarotto, Eduardo Luis & Pereira, Gênesis Miguel & Amorin, Anderson Luís Walker & Schollkopf, Joana Cechele & Mores, Giana de Vargas, 2023. "Agricultural commodities price dependence on Brazilian financial market," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 14(01), January.
    2. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    3. Vollmer, Teresa & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2019. "The influence of Brazilian exports on price transmission processes in the coffee sector: a Markov-switching approach," Department of Agricultural and Rural Development (DARE) Discussion Papers 291497, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    4. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures markets; cross-border volatility transmission; emerging futures exchanges; price spikes in commodity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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