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Incentives for Information Production in Markets where Prices Affect Real Investment

Author

Listed:
  • James Dow
  • Itay Goldstein
  • Alexander Guembel

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We analyze information production incentives for traders in financial markets, when firms condition investment decisions on information revealed through stock prices. We show that traders' private value of information about a firm's investment project increases with the ex ante likelihood the project will be undertaken. This generates an informational amplification effect of shocks to firm value. Information production by traders may exhibit strategic complementarities for projects that would not be undertaken in the absence of positive news from the stock market. A small decline in fundamentals can lead to a market breakdown where information production ceases, and investment and firm value collapse. Our theory sheds light on how productivity shocks are amplified over the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • James Dow & Itay Goldstein & Alexander Guembel, 2017. "Incentives for Information Production in Markets where Prices Affect Real Investment," Post-Print halshs-01698541, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01698541
    DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvw023
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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