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Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Fan, Jingwen

Abstract

We investigate whether the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level can deliver a reasonable explanation for UK inflation in the 1970s, a period in which the government greatly increased public spending without raising taxes and monetary policy was accommodative. The model is tested for its implied cointegration between inflation and government spending and for its dynamics by using the method of indirect inference, under which the model?s simulated behaviour is compared with the inflation time-series process. We find that the model is accepted in both respects.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Fan, Jingwen, 2010. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7630
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    Cited by:

    1. Naveen Srinivasan & Pankaj Kumar, 2012. "Inflation Persistence: Does Credibility of the Monetary Regime Matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2944-2954.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap simulation; Fiscal theory of the price level; indirect inference; Uk inflation; Wald statistic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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