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Nominal Debt and the Dynamics of Currency Crises

Author

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • MacKowiak, Bartosz

Abstract

We study the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies during a currency crisis in an economy with government nominal liabilities. We show that the stock and maturity of these liabilities are key determinants of the magnitude, timing and predictability of a devaluation. Among notable features of our model, monetary authorities defend the currency parity conditional on the level of the interest rate, rather than on the stock of international reserves; budget deficits need not be high before a currency crisis; postdevaluation inflation may exhibit little persistence, and money demand need not fall after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo & MacKowiak, Bartosz, 2000. "Nominal Debt and the Dynamics of Currency Crises," Center Discussion Papers 28516, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:yaleeg:28516
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28516
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
    2. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    3. Gegenfurtner, Dennis Andreas, 2021. "The causes of Original Sin: An empirical investigation of emerging market and developing countries," IPE Working Papers 174/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Craig Burnside, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Craig Burnside on the Causes and Consequences of Twin Banking-Currency Crises," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), April.
    5. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    6. António Afonso, 2002. "Disturbing the fiscal theory of the price level: Can it fit the eu-15?," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
    8. Maltritz, Dominik, 2008. "Modelling the dependency between currency and debt crises: An option based approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 344-347, September.
    9. Burnside, Craig, 2004. "Currency crises and contingent liabilities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 25-52, January.
    10. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Currency crises and the stock market: empirical evidence for another type of twin crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(29), pages 4561-4587.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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