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Fiscal policy effects in the European Union

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  • Thams, Andreas

Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the impact of fiscal policy on the price level for the cases of Germany and Spain. We investigate whether the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is able to deliver a reasonable explanation for the different performances of the price level in these two countries during recent years. We apply two different approaches. The first is a Bayesian VAR model using sign restrictions to assess the relation between surpluses and public debt. Afterwards, we use a Bayesian regime-switching model to uncover changes in monetary and fiscal policy behavior. The analysis basically shows that in each of the two countries fiscal shocks have a significant impact on the price level. Nonetheless, the FTPL does not deliver a reasonable explanation for the differences in the pattern of inflation between the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Thams, Andreas, 2006. "Fiscal policy effects in the European Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2006-016
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
    2. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2014. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1079-1091.
    3. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez & Sacnicte Valdez Del Rio, 2021. "Interaction of Economic Policy. Lessons on Social Welfare and Risk Premium," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(1), pages 7-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal theory; policy interaction; monetary policy; public debt; price level; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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