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When Can Central Banks Anchor Expectations? Policy communication and controllability

Author

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  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew
  • Acocella, Nicola
  • Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni

Abstract

Rational expectations are often used as a strong argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker?s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances rational expectations can enhance our power to control an economy over time. In those cases, policy announcements, properly communicated, can be used to extend the impact of conventional policy instruments. In this paper we present a general forward-looking policy framework and use it to provide a formal justification for attempting to anchor expectations, and as a possible justification for publishing interest rate forecasts or tax rate projections. This approach allows us to test when policymakers can and cannot expect to be able to manage expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni, 2008. "When Can Central Banks Anchor Expectations? Policy communication and controllability," CEPR Discussion Papers 7078, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7078
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Moritz Kuhn & Thomas Warmedinger, 2012. "The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 1(1), pages 44-65, June.
    2. Andrew Hallett & Jan Libich, 2012. "Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 271-297, November.
    3. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Acocella, Nicola & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni, 2010. "Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-67, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Controllability; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Policy neutrality; Rational expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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