IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ehsrev/v76y2023i3p701-727.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920

Author

Listed:
  • Solomos Solomou
  • Ryland Thomas

Abstract

This article brings together some of the improvements to GDP estimates from the income side since the publication of Charles Feinstein's 1972 volume National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. Many of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together, focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income‐based estimates for the period 1841–1920. The new data are then used to comment on several features of the late nineteenth‐century UK economy, considering both the trend and cyclical path of the economy. The new data, coupled with modern de‐trending methods, suggest that there was a long‐term slowing of the UK economy from the late nineteenth century, starting from the 1870s. To undertake the trend–cycle decomposition, we employ a wavelets methodology to describe the time–varying features of trends and cycles over this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 701-727, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:76:y:2023:i:3:p:701-727
    DOI: 10.1111/ehr.13219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13219
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ehr.13219?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. James B. Jefferys & Dorothy Walters, 1955. "National Income And Expenditure Of The United Kingdom, 1870–1952," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 5(1), pages 1-40, December.
    3. Greasley, David, 1986. "British economic growth: The paradox of the 1880s and the timing of the climacteric," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 416-444, October.
    4. Frank Geary, 1998. "Deindustrialization in Ireland to 1851: some evidence from the census," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 51(3), pages 512-541, August.
    5. Boyer, George R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "New Estimates Of British Unemployment, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 643-675, September.
    6. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    7. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    8. Frank Geary & Tom Stark, 2004. "Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 362-395, May.
    9. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 309-338, May.
    10. Jason Begley & Frank Geary & Tom Stark, 2016. "Convergence in the pre-1914 Atlantic economy: what really happened to wages in Ireland between 1881 and 1911?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-67.
    11. Phyllis Deane, 1968. "New Estimates Of Gross National Product For The United Kingdom 1830–1914," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 14(2), pages 95-112, June.
    12. Feinstein, Charles H., 1998. "Pessimism Perpetuated: Real Wages and the Standard of Living in Britain during and after the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 625-658, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fredrik N G Andersson & Jason Lennard, 2019. "Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: estimates based on a dynamic factor model," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(1), pages 50-71.
    2. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2023. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 283-304, February.
    4. Seán Kenny & Jason Lennard & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800-1921," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _185, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Nicholas Crafts, 2022. "Slow real wage growth during the Industrial Revolution: productivity paradox or pro-rich growth? [Engels’ pause: technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the British industrial rev," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-13.
    6. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    7. Leslie Hannah & Robert Bennett, 2022. "Large‐scale Victorian manufacturers: Reconstructing the lost 1881 UK employer census," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(3), pages 830-856, August.
    8. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ravshonbek Otojanov & Roger Fouquet & Brigitte Granville, 2023. "Factor prices and induced technical change in the industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 599-623, May.
    10. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    11. Bielenberg, Andy & Geary, Frank, 2006. "Growth in manufacturing output in Ireland between the Union and the Famine: Some evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 119-152, January.
    12. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    13. Bodenhorn, Howard & Guinnane, Timothy & Mroz, Thomas, 2013. "Problems of Sample-selection Bias in the Historical Heights Literature: A Theoretical and Econometric Analysis," Center Discussion Papers 148749, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    14. Frank Geary & Tom Stark, 2004. "Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 362-395, May.
    15. Hegelund, Erik & Taalbi, Josef, 2023. "What determines unemployment in the long run? Band spectrum regression on ten countries 1913–2016," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 144-167.
    16. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    17. Joan R Rosés & Nikolaus Wolf, 2021. "Regional growth and inequality in the long-run: Europe, 1900–2015," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 17-48.
    18. Jaume Ventura & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "Debt into growth: How sovereign debt accelerated the first Industrial Revolution," Economics Working Papers 1483, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
    20. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ehsrev:v:76:y:2023:i:3:p:701-727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ehsukea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.