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Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance

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  • Bean, Charles R

Abstract

In the first part of this paper I use a small macroeconomic model to examine the causes of the appreciation of sterling during 1979-81. Oil takes about half of the blame. Contractionary monetary policies alone do not seem sufficient to explain the rest, but when coupled with adverse supply-side developments they seem capable of explaining both the appreciation and the associated increase in unemployment. In the second part of the paper I examine the possibility that temporary fluctuations in the real exchange rate may have a permanent effect on British export performance. Using data from 1900 to the present I find evidence that is consistent with "hysteresis" effects on both the demand and supply side of the export market.

Suggested Citation

  • Bean, Charles R, 1987. "Sterling Misalignment and British Trade Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:177
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    1. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
    2. Willem H. Buiter & Douglas D. Purvis, 1980. "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-299, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aziz, Nusrate & Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan, 2018. "Exchange rate hysteresis in the UK imports from the South Asian Countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-178.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    3. Clemens Kool & Alex Lammertsma, 2005. "Inflation Persistence under Semi-Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes: The European Evidence 1974–1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, January.
    4. Tervala, Juha, 2013. "Learning by devaluating: A supply-side effect of competitive devaluation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 275-290.
    5. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices," NBER Working Papers 2483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    7. Gottfries, Nils, 1999. "Markets Shares, Financial Constraints, and Pricing Behavior in the Export Market," Working Paper Series 1999:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Park, Mi-Hee & Koo, Won W., 2005. "Recent Development in Infrastructure and Its Impact on Agricultural and Non-agricultural Trade," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19525, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kenny, Seán & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2022. "Political Economy Of Secession: Lessons From The Early Years Of The Irish Free State," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 261, pages 48-78, August.
    11. David Ansic & Geoffrey Pugh, 1999. "An experimental test of trade hysteresis: market exit and entry decisions in the presence of sunk costs and exchange rate uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 427-436.

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