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The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas

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  • Cloyne, James
  • Martinez, Joseba
  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

Using a narrative identification of US tax changes over the post-WWII period, we show that corporate income tax cuts foster R&D spending and innovation, leading to a persistent increase in aggregate productivity and output. In contrast, changes in the average personal income tax rate have mostly short-term effects. An estimated endogenous productivity model highlights the role of “applied research†- over and above formal R&D - as a main force behind these results, and suggests a social rate of return to investment in innovation between 20% and 75%.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloyne, James & Martinez, Joseba & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," CEPR Discussion Papers 17455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17455
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TFP;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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