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Expectations-driven liquidity traps: Implications for monetary and fiscal policy

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  • Schmidt, Sebastian
  • Nakata, Taisuke

Abstract

We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines in agents' confidence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely-studied fundamental-driven liquidity traps are not a useful guide for enhancing welfare in this model. Raising the inflation target, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing for the use of government spending as an additional stabilization tool can exacerbate deflationary pressures and demand deficiencies during the liquidity trap episodes. However, appointing a policymaker who is sufficiently less concerned with government spending stabilization than society eliminates expectations-driven liquidity traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmidt, Sebastian & Nakata, Taisuke, 2020. "Expectations-driven liquidity traps: Implications for monetary and fiscal policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15422
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Piergallini, 2024. "Fiscal Stimulus of Last Resort," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1479-1514, September.
    2. Billi, Roberto & Galí, Jordi & Nakov, Anton, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy with r∗<0," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
    5. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2022. "Average inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    9. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    10. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2023. "Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 41-83, October.
    11. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "Simple Analytics of the Government Investment Multiplier," Papers 2302.11212, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Effective lower bound; Sunspot equilibria; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Discretion; Policy delegation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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