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Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound

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  • Özcan, Gülserim
  • Traficante, Guido

Abstract

This paper studies robust policy when the policymaker has Knightian uncertainty about the exact position of the effective lower bound (ELB). First, we characterize optimal discretionary policy when a benevolent policymaker controls the nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Compared to the full information case, an uncertainty-averse policymaker overestimates the level of the ELB, thereby triggering a more aggressive reduction in the nominal interest rate prior to the liquidity trap. Furthermore, the anticipation of a larger increase in public spending improves the trade-off between inflation and the output gap, and dampens the perceived worst-case level of the ELB. As a result, a less conservative fiscal stabilization is desirable to address the uncertainty concerns of the policymaker by partially substituting for the nominal interest rate at the ELB. Moreover, an inflation-conservative policymaker mitigates the impact of uncertainty on equilibrium outcomes even better than a fiscally active policymaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Özcan, Gülserim & Traficante, Guido, 2024. "Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:81:y:2024:i:c:s016407042400020x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Discretion; Liquidity trap; Robust control; Knightian uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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