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Bank capital and the European recovery from the COVID-19 crisis

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  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Steffen, Sascha
  • Tröger, Tobias

Abstract

Do current levels of bank capital in Europe suffice to support a swift recovery from the COVID-19 crisis? Recent research shows that a well-capitalized banking sector is a major factor driving the speed and breadth of recoveries from economic downturns. In particular, loan supply is negatively affected by low levels of capital. We estimate a capital shortfall in European banks of up to 600 billion euro in a severe scenario, and around 143 billion euro in a moderate scenario. We propose a precautionary recapitalization on the European level that puts the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) center stage. This proposal would cut through the sovereign-bank nexus, safeguard financial stability, and position the Eurozone for a quick recovery from the pandemic.

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  • Schularick, Moritz & Steffen, Sascha & Tröger, Tobias, 2020. "Bank capital and the European recovery from the COVID-19 crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14927
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    1. Thomas Philippon & Philipp Schnabl, 2013. "Efficient Recapitalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 1-42, February.
    2. Tobias H Tröger, 2018. "Too Complex to Work: A Critical Assessment of the Bail-in Tool under the European Bank Recovery and Resolution Regime," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 35-72.
    3. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 0. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    4. Tobias Berg & Anthony Saunders & Sascha Steffen & Daniel Streitz, 2017. "Mind the Gap: The Difference between U.S. and European Loan Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 948-987.
    5. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2014. "Falling short of expectations? Stress-testing the European banking system," CEPS Papers 8803, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    7. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    8. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    9. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
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    Cited by:

    1. Özlem Dursun-de Neef, H. & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2021. "COVID-19 and lending responses of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Financial regulation and bank supervision during a pandemic," MPRA Paper 105887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Carletti, Elena & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2021. "Corona and banking: A financial crisis in slow motion? An evaluation of the policy options," SAFE White Paper Series 79, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Markus Demary & Michael Hüther, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie und die Stabilität des Bankensystems [The Corona Pandemic and the Stability of the Banking System: The Solution is in the Real Economy]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(11), pages 862-868, November.
    5. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2024. "Tail risk connectedness among GCC banks episodes from the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19 pandemic," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Christoph Bertsch & Mike Mariathasan, 2021. "Optimal bank leverage and recapitalization in crowded markets," BIS Working Papers 923, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Huertas, Thomas F., 2020. "Plug the gap: Make resolution ready for corona," SAFE White Paper Series 73, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Iustina Alina Boitan & Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak, 2021. "The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak—Evidence from EU Member States," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank capital; Financial stablity; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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