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An Economic Theory of the Evolution of the States System, and Evidence for Europe 1000-1800

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  • Cervellati, Matteo
  • Lazzaroni, Sara
  • Prarolo, Giovanni
  • Vanin, Paolo

Abstract

We provide a theory and empirical evidence on the evolution of the state system in pre-industrial Europe. We study sovereign polities with a fiscal, regulatory and military capacity that is imperfect and declining in space. Ruling elites make strategic non-cooperative investments in state capacity to maximize rents. The resulting territorial competition shapes the equilibrium evolution of the state system. Increasing productive potential imply changes in the type, size and number of polities and impact the distribution of economic activity across space. We assemble geo-referenced yearly data on all sovereign polities ruling over Europe 1000-1800. We document highly non-monotonic patterns of (dis)aggregation of political geography and transition phases with spikes in wars prior to the emergence of modern territorial countries. Estimates of the impact of political geography on local (city) growth document a changing role of type and size of polities and a reversal of the role of centrality within polities.

Suggested Citation

  • Cervellati, Matteo & Lazzaroni, Sara & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo, 2022. "An Economic Theory of the Evolution of the States System, and Evidence for Europe 1000-1800," CEPR Discussion Papers 13719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13719
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. P. Buonanno & M. Cervellati & S. Lazzaroni & G. Prarolo, 2022. "Historical social contracts and their legacy: a disaggregated analysis of the medieval republics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 485-526, December.
    2. Francesco Cinnirella & Alireza Naghavi & Giovanni Prarolo, 2023. "Islam and human capital in historical Spain," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 225-257, June.
    3. Marta Santamaría & Jaume Ventura & Uğur Yeşilbayraktar, 2020. "Borders within Europe," Economics Working Papers 1763, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Santamaria, Marta & Ventura, Jaume & Yesilbayraktar, Ugur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 560, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Accetturo, Antonio & Cascarano, Michele & de Blasio, Guido, 2024. "Pirate attacks and the shape of the Italian urban system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Marta Santamaría & Jaume Ventura & Ugur Yesilbayraktar, 2020. "Borders within Europe," Working Papers 1229, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Santamaría, Marta & Ventura, Jaume & Yesilbayraktar, Ugur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1355, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Ventura, Jaume & Santamaria, Marta & YeÅŸilbayraktar, UÄŸur, 2021. "Borders within Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 15633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State systems; Productive potentials; Pre-industrial europe; Non-cooperative equilibria; Territorial competition; Wars; Geo-referenced data;
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