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Return dispersion risk in FX and global equity markets: Does it explain currency momentum?

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  • Grobys, Klaus
  • Heinonen, Jari-Pekka
  • Kolari, James

Abstract

We investigate the potential link between momentum in currency returns and global economic risk as measured by currency return dispersion (RD). Initial tests contribute to the exchange rate puzzle by showing that a common macroeconomic risk component in currency markets is present in global equity markets. Subsequent tests indicate that the spread on zero-cost currency momentum strategies is larger and highly significant in high RD states compared to low RD states. Also, the relation between these momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Based on this evidence, we conclude that global economic risk as proxied by RD helps to explain currency momentum profits.

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  • Grobys, Klaus & Heinonen, Jari-Pekka & Kolari, James, 2018. "Return dispersion risk in FX and global equity markets: Does it explain currency momentum?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 264-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:264-280
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.01.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Hutchinson, Mark C. & O'Brien, John, 2020. "Time series momentum and macroeconomic risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Xiaoyue Chen & Bin Li & Andrew C. Worthington, 2022. "Realised volatility and industry momentum returns," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Wouassom, Alain & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Tsitsianis, Nicholas, 2022. "Global momentum: The optimal trading approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A multifractal model of asset (in)variances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return dispersion; Momentum; Currency markets; Global economic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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