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Forecasting comparison of long term component dynamic models for realized covariance matrices

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  • BAUWENS, Luc

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

  • BRAIONE, Manuela

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

  • STORTI, Giuseppe

    (Université di Salerno)

Abstract

Novel model specifications that include a time-varying long run component in the dynamics of realized covariance matrices are proposed. The adopted modeling framework allows the secular component to enter the model structure either in an additive fashion or as a multiplicative factor, and to be specified parametrically, using a MIDAS filter, or non-parametrically. Estimation is performed by maximizing a Wishart quasi-likelihood function. The one-step ahead forecasting performance of the models is assessed by means of three approaches: the Model Confidence Set, (global) minimum variance portfolios and Value-at-Risk. The results provide evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the proposed models outperform benchmarks incorporating a constant long run component, both in and out-of sample.

Suggested Citation

  • BAUWENS, Luc & BRAIONE, Manuela & STORTI, Giuseppe, 2014. "Forecasting comparison of long term component dynamic models for realized covariance matrices," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014053, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2014053
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    5. BAUWENS, Luc & STORTI, Giuseppe & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2012. "Dynamic conditional correlation models for realized covariance matrices," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Marchese, Malvina & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Tamvakis, Michael & Di Iorio, Francesca, 2020. "Forecasting crude oil and refined products volatilities and correlations: New evidence from fractionally integrated multivariate GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Braione, Manuela & Storti, Giuseppe, 2017. "A dynamic component model for forecasting high-dimensional realized covariance matrices," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 40-61.
    4. Bauwens, Luc & Xu, Yongdeng, 2023. "DCC- and DECO-HEAVY: Multivariate GARCH models based on realized variances and correlations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 938-955.
    5. BAUWENS Luc, & XU Yongdeng,, 2019. "DCC-HEAVY: A multivariate GARCH model based on realized variances and correlations," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2019025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Luc Bauwens & Edoardo Otranto, 2023. "Modeling Realized Covariance Matrices: A Class of Hadamard Exponential Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 1376-1401.
    7. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    8. Gribisch, Bastian & Hartkopf, Jan Patrick & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2020. "Factor state–space models for high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-20.
    9. Xin Jin & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2019. "Bayesian parametric and semiparametric factor models for large realized covariance matrices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 641-660, August.
    10. Braione, Manuela, 2016. "A time-varying long run HEAVY model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 36-44.
    11. Naimoli, Antonio & Storti, Giuseppe, 2019. "Heterogeneous component multiplicative error models for forecasting trading volumes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1332-1355.
    12. Gribisch, Bastian & Hartkopf, Jan Patrick, 2023. "Modeling realized covariance measures with heterogeneous liquidity: A generalized matrix-variate Wishart state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 43-64.
    13. Vassallo, Danilo & Buccheri, Giuseppe & Corsi, Fulvio, 2021. "A DCC-type approach for realized covariance modeling with score-driven dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 569-586.
    14. Hartkopf, Jan Patrick & Reh, Laura, 2023. "Challenging golden standards in EWMA smoothing parameter calibration based on realized covariance measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Harry Vander Elst & David Veredas, 2017. "Smoothing it Out: Empirical and Simulation Results for Disentangled Realized Covariances," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 106-138.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized covariance; component dynamic models; MIDAS; minimum variance portfolio; Model Confidence Set; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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