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Dynamic optimal portfolio selection in a VaR framework

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  • RENGIFO, Erick
  • ROMBOUTS, Jeroen

Abstract

We propose a dynamic portfolio selection model that maximizes expected returns subject to a Value-at-Risk constraint. The model allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis of portfolio distributions estimating the model parameters by weighted maximum likelihood in a increasing window setup. We determine the best daily investment recommendations in terms of percentage to borrow or lend and the optimal weights of the assets in the risky portfolio. Two empirical applications illustrate in an out-of-sample context which models are preferred from a statistical and economic point of view. We find that the APARCH(1,1) model outperforms the GARCH(1,1) model. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the distributional innovation hypothesis shows that in general the skewed-t is preferred to the normal and Student-t.

Suggested Citation

  • RENGIFO, Erick & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2004. "Dynamic optimal portfolio selection in a VaR framework," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004057, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2004057
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    Cited by:

    1. Luc, BAUWENS & Walid, BEN OMRANE & Erick, Rengifo, 2006. "Intra-Daily FX Optimal Portfolio Allocation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006005, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Josip Arneric & Elza Jurun & Snježana Pivac, 2008. "Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 7, pages 1-11, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio selection; Value-at-Risk; skewed-t distribution; weighted maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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