IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/ip-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

LONG-RUN SIMULATIONS WITH GTAP: Illustrative Results from APEC Trade Liberalisation

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie Walmsley

Abstract

In static applied general equilibrium models, the exogenous/endogenous split between variables (or closure) is used to infer the time frame over which the effects of a shock are simulated. This paper introduces a long-run closure for the GTAP model (Hertel and Tsigas, 1997) and uses this closure to simulate and compare the short-run and long-run effects of Asia-Pacific trade liberalisation. The approach explored here incorporates some relatively minor changes to existing GTAP theory in order to define a steady state in which growth rates of all real variables are uniform. Such uniformity must apply in the initial database (as well as in the post-shock solution). So to implement the new long run in GTAP a new initial database must first be created. Details concerning the creation of the new database are given, and results under the new approach are compared with those obtained under the old. The emphasis of this paper is on the development of a long-run closure in which the percentage change form equations of the model and the relationships between the levels variables in the GTAP database are consistent. Further research is required into these types of long-run closures to incorporate changes in ownership of capital to ensure that changes in welfare are adequately modelled. In the results reported here, GDP is not a useful guide to national welfare. The long-run closures introduced here are also compared with another comparative static long-run closure developed for GTAP by Francois, MacDonald and Nordstrom (1996).

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Walmsley, 1998. "LONG-RUN SIMULATIONS WITH GTAP: Illustrative Results from APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-70, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/ip-70.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 1998-01
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/ip-70.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Philip D. Adams & Karen M. Huff & Robert McDougall & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell, 1996. "Medium- and Long-run Consequences for Australia of an APEC Free Trade Area: CGE Analyses using the GTAP and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-111, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    4. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-280, May.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    7. Hertel, Thomas & Arndt, Channing, 1997. "China in 2005: Implications for the Rest of the World," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 505-547.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boyer, Ivan & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2010. "Quantitative assessment of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union," Estudios Estadísticos 4774, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Terrie L. Walmsley, 1999. "Incorporating International Capital Ownership into the GTAP Model: Results for Asia-Pacific Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-72, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Kolasa, Marcin, 2014. "Real convergence and its illusions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-88.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Aamir & Walmsley, Terrie & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, 2021. "Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Jong Eun Lee, 2004. "The sequential issue in free trade areas: Policy implication for Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 165-174.
    6. Tomoyoshi Nakajima, 2002. "An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Japan-Korea FTA: Sectoral Aspects," Discussion papers 0202e, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    7. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    8. Chunding Li & John Whalley & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2021. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 78-105.
    9. Widodo, Tri & Fitrady, Ardyanto & Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka, 2018. "A Long-Run Estimation of Natural Gas Demand in Indonesian Manufacturing Sector: Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach," MPRA Paper 86887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Biyik, Onur, 2021. "Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios: Examination of the GTAP 10A MRIO Database," Conference papers 333265, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. McDonald, Scott & Walmsley, Terrie, 2001. "Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana," Conference papers 330940, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Minor, Peter & Mureverwi, Brian, 2013. "A Household Level Analysis of African Trade Liberalization: The Case of Mozambique," Conference papers 332308, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Oktaviani, Rina & Sugema, Iman & Ratnawaty, Anny, 2003. "Bank Restructuring and its Implication on Indonesian Macro Economy and Agricultural Sector," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 58194, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. De Miguel, Carlos J. & Durán Lima, José Elías & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo, 2007. "Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States: effects on trade, production and welfare," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2001. "An Integrated Approach To Agricultural Tradeand Development Issues:Exploring The Welfare And Distribution Issues," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 11, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    16. Khan, Aamir & Walmsley, Terrie & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, 2019. "Trade Liberalization and Income Inequality: The Case for Pakistan," Conference papers 333125, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Giannatale, Sonia & Roa, María José, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8107, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
    3. Yasir Khan & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "The Impact of Formal and Informal Institutions on Economic Performance: A Cross-Country Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:130, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    4. Serge Coulombe & Jean-Francois Tremblay, 2009. "Education, Productivity and Economic Growth: A Selective Review of the Evidence," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 18, pages 3-24, Spring.
    5. Palle Andersen & David Gruen, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policies and Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.),Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Su, Liangjun & Jin, Sainan & Zhang, Yonghui, 2015. "Specification test for panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 222-244.
    7. Roger E. A. Farmer & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Economic Growth in an Interdependent World Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 969-990, October.
    8. Erich Gundlach, 1994. "Accounting for the stock of human capital: Selected evidence and potential implications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 350-374, June.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zike Qi, 2024. "A Simulation of the Necessary Total Factor Productivity Growth and Its Feasible Dual Circulation Source Pathways to Achieve China’s 2035—Economic Goals: A Dynamic Computational General Equilibrium Stu," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-41, September.
    11. Hahn, Jinsoo, 1995. "Do Koreans save optimally?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 429-442, August.
    12. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. repec:idb:brikps:377 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. D.P. Chaudhri & E. Wilson, 2000. "Savings, Investment, Productivity and Economic Growth of Australia 1861–1990: Some Explorations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(232), pages 55-73, March.
    15. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    16. Loesse Esso, 2012. "Re-examining the saving-investment nexus: threshold cointegration and causality evidence from the ECOWAS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 193-220, August.
    17. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Sonia Di Giannatale & María José Roa, 2016. "Formal Saving in Developing Economies: Barriers, Interventions, and Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 97397, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor, 1998. "Exchange controls, international capital flows and saving-investment correlations in the UK: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 69-98, March.
    20. Dedák, István, 2000. "A gazdasági felzárkózás növekedéselméleti összefüggései [The growth-theory aspects of economic catch-up]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 411-430.
    21. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & PING HUA & ZHICHENG LIANG, 2006. "Financial Development, Economic Efficiency, And Productivity Growth: Evidence From China," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 27-52, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.