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Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020

Author

Listed:
  • J. A. Giesecke
  • N. H. Tran
  • G.A. Meagher
  • F. Pang

Abstract

We forecast detailed trends for employment by industry, occupation and qualification in Vietnam for the period 2010 - 2020. The forecast is conducted using VNET - a large-scaled computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Vietnamese economy. Inputs into the forecast include independent projections for changes in macroeconomic variables; trend movements in variables describing the details of industry input requirements and household preferences; assumptions relating to Vietnam's foreign trading environment; and projections for government policies. A decomposition analysis is used to identify the contribution of each of the exogenous shocks to the forecast outcomes. This analysis facilitates transparency in forecasting by clearly distinguishing and ranking the factors responsible for generating a particular forecast outcome. It also helps researchers to focus research effort towards improving estimates for those inputs to the simulation that have the most bearing on the outcomes forecast for the labour market.

Suggested Citation

  • J. A. Giesecke & N. H. Tran & G.A. Meagher & F. Pang, 2011. "Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-216, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    3. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos distinguiénd," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
    4. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    5. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273, Elsevier.
    6. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "Vietnam's WTO Accession and Export-Led Growth- Introduction," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 5-12.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristinn Hermannsson & Patrizio Lecca & J. Kim Swales, 2017. "How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 429-451, October.
    2. Janine Dixon, 2017. "Victoria University Employment Forecasts: 2017 edition," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-277, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Nguyen Tran Tuan & Gábor Hegedűs, 2022. "Urbanization and Post-Acquisition Livelihood in a Peri-Urban Context in Vietnam: A Geographical Comparison between Hanoi, Danang, and Vinh City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Angie Ngoc Tran & Irene Nørlund, 2015. "Globalization, industrialization, and labor markets in Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 143-163, January.
    5. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market forecasting; long-run forecasting; decomposition analysis; Vietnamese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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