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Incidencia de las lluvias y del precio en la oferta de leche cruda en los departamentos de Córdoba y Sucre, Colombia

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  • Castillo Nuñez, Omar

    (Universidad de Córdoba)

Abstract

Se utiliza modelación econométrica de series de tiempo para contrastar empíricamente la relación de largo y corto plazo entre la oferta de leche cruda en los departamentos de Córdoba y Sucre con el precio y las lluvias durante el período enero/2006-diciembre/2018. Los resultados del modelo autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos no lineal indican que en el largo plazo la respuesta de la oferta es inelástica y simétrica: ante una variación de 1% del precio real reacciona en el mismo sentido de este en una magnitud de 0,96% en Córdoba; en Sucre, la respuesta en el modelo estándar es inversa, no esperada, pero no tiene significancia estadística; ante la desviación estándar de la lluvia reacciona en sentido contrario a esta: 0,43% en el primero y 0,31% en el segundo. En el corto plazo, la respuesta es inelástica al precio, pero asimétrica en Córdoba: la reacción frente a variaciones positivas y negativas de este es inversa y de magnitud significativa diferente hasta cinco meses atrás; ante la desviación estándar de la lluvia es simétrica y en general positiva hasta el retardo cinco.

Suggested Citation

  • Castillo Nuñez, Omar, 2024. "Incidencia de las lluvias y del precio en la oferta de leche cruda en los departamentos de Córdoba y Sucre, Colombia," Ensayos de Economía 21226, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000418:021226
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    microeconomía agraria; econometría de series de tiempo; raíces unitarias; cointegración; modelo autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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