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El Mercado Bio-combustible : Escenarios hipotéticos

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  • Juan Manuel Dominguez Andrade

Abstract

En este trabajo se emplea el algoritmo de Ivaldi-Vibes para modelar el mercado de combustibles de EE.UU. bajo el escenario hipotético en el que los subsidios a la producción de etanol fueron eliminados desde 1995 hasta 2005. En esta situación hipotética, los individuos no sólo estaban dispuestos a cambiar su decisión de consumo, sino también a considerar modos alternativos de transporte, incluyendo el transporte público, en bicicleta o caminar. Como resultado, la cuota de mercado exterior alternativa aumentó un 4% y 6% y las cuotas del mercado de combustibles convencionales aumentó, mientras que el etanol combinado experimentó disminuciones en todos los distritos petroleros. Esta metodología también permite simular el impacto de esta eliminación en los precios de los combustibles. Los precios de los combustibles convencionales aumentaron en un rango entre 0,12 y 1,34 por ciento. Por último, ya que los diferentes tipos de compuestos oxigenados son combinados con la gasolina regular para el cumplimiento de las regulaciones de la EPA, la reducción de las cuotas de mercado de combustibles reformulados implica un trade-off de la demanda de estos productos oxigenados, cuya tasa de variación promedio es de 55,14% para la razón etanol- MTBE.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Dominguez Andrade, 2012. "El Mercado Bio-combustible : Escenarios hipotéticos," Revista de Economía del Caribe 10280, Universidad del Norte.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000382:010280
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    File URL: http://rcientificas.uninorte.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/viewFile/3880/2868
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biocombustibles; etanol; subsidios a la producción; oxigenados; costos marginales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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