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La Demanda Por Importaciones En Colombia

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  • Hugo Oliveros
  • Luisa Fernanda Silva

Abstract

El presente documento tiene como propósito construir, a partir de series trimestrales, modelos que expliquen el comportamiento de las importaciones colombianas para diferentes grados de agregación (totales, bienes de capital y equipo de transporte, materias primas e insumos para la industria) durante las últimas dos decadas. Adicionalmente se investiga la posibilidad de utilizar dichos modelos para proveer mecanismos de pronóstico de las importaciones. La estimación de las demandas de importaciones se hace considerando que estas mantienen una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo con el ingreso y los precios relativos. Bajo estas circunstancias, la estimación se lleva a cabo usando métodos de estimación que permiten aproximarse al problema desde un sistema de ecuaciones bajo variables integradas los cuales, en la mayoría de los casos, conducen a representaciones uniecuacionales, ECM, producto de la evaluación de condiciones de exogeneidad débil de los determinantes de las importaciones.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Oliveros & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "La Demanda Por Importaciones En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2967, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Jaime R. Marquez, 1995. "A century of trade elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 531, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Oliveros & Carlos Huertas, 2002. "Desequilibrios Nominales y Reales del Tipo de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 220, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Felipe Gallardo Sanchez & Luis Eudoro Vallejo Zamudio, 2019. "Política comercial y evolución del sector externo en Colombia 1970–2016," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 38(67), pages 123-155, February.
    3. Hugo Oliveros C. & Carlos Huertas C., 2003. "Desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 21(43), pages 32-65, June.
    4. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:32-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 806, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Rangel Vargas, Mario Gabriel & Pinza Córdoba, Juan Camilo & Fajardo Perdomo, Juan Pablo & Velasco Delgado, Jeferson Yomar, 2019. "Principales Determinantes de las Importaciones en Colombia. 2000 – 2016," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 20(1), pages 130-157, January.

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