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La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Esteban Carranza
  • Alejandra González
  • Natalia Serna

Abstract

En este documento estudiamos la interacción entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana durante la última década. Nuestro estudio descriptivo se basa en un panel detallado de producción y valor agregado a nivel de producto industrial, con información adicional del volumen, valor y tasa de cambio bilateral por producto y por país de destino/origen de las exportaciones e importaciones. La riqueza del panel permite la estimación de correlaciones condicionales en un conjunto amplio de controles, incluyendo efectos fijos a nivel de producto, tiempo y país de destino/origen, que por lo tanto absorbe patrones complejos de heterogeneidad no observada. Nuestros resultados muestran una correlación positiva y robusta entre el valor agregado y las exportaciones industriales, la cual es consistente con nociones convencionales sobre el comportamiento de las firmas industriales en economías abiertas. Encontramos además que las importaciones y el valor agregado de la producción nacional de cada producto tienen una correlación nula o positiva que contradice los temores de una posible sustitución sistemática entre producción doméstica e importaciones. Nuestros resultados muestran además patrones de correlación entre comercio exterior y algunas otras variables relevantes como la tasa de cambio real y nominal. Caracterizamos además los efectos del comercio con Venezuela y mostramos que este ha tenido poco efecto sobre el desempeño de largo plazo de la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 806, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:806
    DOI: 10.32468/be.806
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Naomi N Griffin, 2015. "Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 2015/097, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alejandro Torres García & Thomas Goda & Santiago Sanchez Gonzalez & Adriana Romero Villanueva, 2017. "Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio internacional en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15662, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industria; comercio exterior; valor agregado; tasa de cambio.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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