Into the tropics: Temperature, mortality, and access to health care in Colombia

This paper analyzes the relationship between temperature, mortality, and adaptation opportunities in a tropical country. Such countries host almost 40% of the world's population, and face inherently different environmental, demographic, and socio-economic conditions than their counterparts in temperate areas. Using detailed data from all Colombian municipalities, I show that even at narrow temper- ature ranges, which are characteristic of the tropics, anomalously hot or cold days increase mortality. An additional day with mean temperature above 27°C (80.6°F) increases mortality rates by approximately 0.24 deaths per 100,000, equivalent to 0.7% of monthly death rates. Unlike temperate locations, I find that deaths attributed to infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses drive this relationship in the hot part of the distribution, mainly affecting children aged 0-9. These findings uncover new factors and populations at risk, and imply that the average person who dies after a hot temperature shock loses approximately 30 years of life. I also provide evidence that access to health care and quality of services could serve as a mediating factor between temperature and mortality.