IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v66y2021ics1043951x21000110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme heat and exports: Evidence from Chinese exporters

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Chengzheng
  • Cong, Jiajia
  • Yin, Lijuan

Abstract

Does extreme heat have causal effects on exports? If so, how do the effects evolve? This paper exploits monthly fluctuations in the number of extremely hot days within a city to identify their effects on firm-level exports in that city. We find robust evidence that hot temperatures have persistent adverse effects on firm-level exports. Specifically, export losses gradually arise following a heat shock, beginning from an undetectable impact and eventually accumulating to a large and significant impact. An additional >30 °C day in a month could generate cumulative losses up to 0.83% of a firm's annual exports twenty-four months later. The negative effects of extreme heat are mainly through its adverse impacts on the firm's investment, capital, and production output. Capital-intensive sectors and FDI-related enterprises are among the most affected by high temperatures. Our findings support the “no-recovery” hypothesis after weather extremes and have implications for future climate change policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Yin, Lijuan, 2021. "Extreme heat and exports: Evidence from Chinese exporters," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:66:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X21000110
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101593?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Jing Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2022. "Industrial Policy and Competition," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 15, pages 349-380, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Deschenes, Olivier, 2014. "Temperature, human health, and adaptation: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 606-619.
    3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2010. "Climate Shocks and Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 454-459, May.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2013. "Natural disasters and the effect of trade on income: A new panel IV approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 18-30.
    6. Ma, Yue & Tang, Heiwai & Zhang, Yifan, 2014. "Factor Intensity, product switching, and productivity: Evidence from Chinese exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 349-362.
    7. Zhang, Peng & Deschenes, Olivier & Meng, Kyle & Zhang, Junjie, 2018. "Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Jiang, Kun & Keller, Wolfgang & Qiu, Larry D. & Ridley, William, 2024. "International joint ventures and internal technology transfer vs. external technology spillovers: Evidence from China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    10. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 4, pages 87-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    12. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    13. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    14. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2015. "Convergence in Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900-2004," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 247-251, May.
    15. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2014. "Exports and Credit Constraints under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 729-744, October.
    16. Chen, Xiaoguang & Yang, Lu, 2019. "Temperature and industrial output: Firm-level evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 257-274.
    17. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    18. Chengzheng Li & Jiajia Cong & Haiying Gu, 2020. "Could Weather Fluctuations Affect Local Economic Growth? Evidence from Counties in the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 201-224, September.
    19. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    20. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    21. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    22. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    23. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    24. Tatyana Deryugina & Solomon M. Hsiang, 2014. "Does the Environment Still Matter? Daily Temperature and Income in the United States," NBER Working Papers 20750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Li, Chengzheng & Xiang, Xunyong & Gu, Haiying, 2015. "Climate shocks and international trade: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 55-57.
    26. Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Luhang Wang & Yifan Zhang, 2017. "WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2784-2820, September.
    27. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    28. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    29. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity (DOI:10.111/j.1467-937x.2007.00463.x)," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 985-985.
    30. Ingrid Dallmann, 2019. "Weather Variations and International Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 155-206, January.
    31. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    32. Kun Jiang & Wolfgang Keller & Larry D. Qiu & William Ridley, 2018. "International Joint Ventures and Internal vs. External Technology Transfer: Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7065, CESifo.
    33. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2017. "Comparative advantage, capital destruction, and hurricanes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 315-337.
    34. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    35. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    37. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2009. "On estimating firm-level production functions using proxy variables to control for unobservables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 112-114, September.
    38. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    39. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Zhang, Zhiyue & Zhang, Wenhao & Wu, Qingyang & Liu, Jiahe & Jiang, Lei, 2024. "Climate Adaptation through Trade: Evidence and Mechanism from Heatwaves on Firms' Imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Jimmy Karlsson, 2021. "Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 311-337, October.
    4. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Gu, Haiying & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "The non-linear effect of daily weather on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Yanyan Ouyang & Chuanwang Sun & Xiaonan Wei & Chuangyu Xie, 2023. "Will Temperature Changes in the Host Country Reduce the Inflow of International Direct Investment? Micro Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(4), pages 781-806, December.
    6. Yuan, Zhengrong & Ding, Hai & Yu, Qiuzuo, 2024. "High temperature, bargaining power and within-firm wage inequality: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Tang, Yuwei & He, Zhenyu, 2024. "Extreme heat and firms' robot adoption: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Qinglan Wu & Guifu Chen & Jing Han & Liyan Wu, 2022. "Does Corporate ESG Performance Improve Export Intensity? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Gu, Haiying & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "The non-linear effect of daily weather on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    3. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    4. Zhou, Tianhang & Li, Xue & Yan, Guo & Li, Jie, 2022. "How productivity and credit constraints affect exports differently? Firm-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 207-230.
    5. Dai, Xiaoyong & Sun, Zao & Liu, Hang, 2018. "Disentangling the effects of endogenous export and innovation on the performance of Chinese manufacturing firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 42-58.
    6. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Chengzheng Li & Jiajia Cong & Haiying Gu, 2020. "Could Weather Fluctuations Affect Local Economic Growth? Evidence from Counties in the People's Republic of China," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 201-224, September.
    9. Ito, Banri & Xu, Zhaoyuan & Yashiro, Naomitsu, 2015. "Does agglomeration promote internationalization of Chinese firms?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 109-121.
    10. Cosaert, Sam & Nieto Castro, Adrian & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," IZA Discussion Papers 16480, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Hu, Cui & Tan, Yong, 2016. "Product differentiation, export participation and productivity growth: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 234-252.
    12. Holtermann, Linus & Rische, Marie-Christin, 2020. "The Subnational Effect of Temperature on Economic Production: A Disaggregated Analysis in European Regions," MPRA Paper 104606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yanyan Ouyang & Chuanwang Sun & Xiaonan Wei & Chuangyu Xie, 2023. "Will Temperature Changes in the Host Country Reduce the Inflow of International Direct Investment? Micro Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(4), pages 781-806, December.
    14. Feriga,Moustafa Amgad Moustafa Ahmed Moustafa & Lozano Gracia,Nancy & Serneels,Pieter Maria, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work : Lessons for Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10682, The World Bank.
    15. Bo Gao & Jing Ma & Zheng Wang, 2021. "The employment and wage effects of export VAT rebates: evidence from China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 347-373, May.
    16. Chengzheng Li & Zheng Pan, 2021. "How do extremely high temperatures affect labor market performance? Evidence from rural China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2265-2291, October.
    17. Acevedo, Sebastian & Mrkaic, Mico & Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Bozzola, Martina & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339375, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    19. Li, Jie & Lan, Liping & Ouyang, Zhigang, 2020. "Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Li Chen & Bin Jiang & Chuan Wang, 2023. "Climate change and urban total factor productivity: evidence from capital cities and municipalities in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 401-441, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:66:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.