IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cnv/wpaper/dt_81en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Transition Risk in Investment Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Crisóstomo

Abstract

We develop a comprehensive framework to measure the impact of the climate transition on investments portfolios. Our analysis is enriched by including geographical, sectorial, company an ISIN-level data o assess transition risk. We find that investment funds suffer a moderate 5.7% loss upon materialization of a high transition risk scenario. However, the risk distribution is significantly left-skewed, with the worst 1% funds excperiencing an average loss of 21.3%. Imnterms of asst classes, equities are the worst performers (12.7%), followed by corporate bonds (5.6%) and government bonds (-4.8%). We discriminate among financial instruments by considering the carbon footprint of specific counterparties and the credit rating, duration, convexity and volatility of individual exposures. We find that sustainable funds are less exposed to transitions risk and perform better than the overall fund sector in the low-carbon transition, validating their choice as green investments

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2023. "Measuring Transition Risk in Investment Funds," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 8, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnv:wpaper:dt_81en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnmv.es/DocPortal/Publicaciones/MONOGRAFIAS/DT_81_Measuring_Transition_Risken.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Jondeau & Benoit Mojon & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2021. "Building benchmarks portfolios with decreasing carbon footprints," BIS Working Papers 985, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. Roncoroni, Alan & Battiston, Stefano & Escobar-Farfán, Luis O.L. & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2021. "Climate risk and financial stability in the network of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Ricardo Crisóstomo & Lorena Couso, 2018. "Financial density forecasts: A comprehensive comparison of risk‐neutral and historical schemes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 589-603, August.
    5. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Benoit Mojon & Cyril Monnet, 2021. "Greening (runnable) brown assets with a liquidity backstop," BIS Working Papers 929, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2022. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Rama Cont & Eric Schaanning, 2017. "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress testing," Working Paper 2017/2, Norges Bank.
    10. Bingler, Julia Anna & Colesanti Senni, Chiara & Monnin, Pierre, 2022. "Understand what you measure: Where climate transition risk metrics converge and why they diverge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Peralta, Gustavo & Crisóstomo, Ricardo, 2016. "Financial contagion with spillover effects: a multiplex network approach," ESRB Working Paper Series 32, European Systemic Risk Board.
    12. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2021. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-14, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    13. Laurent Clerc & Alberto Giovannini & Sam Langfield & Tuomas Peltonen & Richard Portes & Martin Scheicher, 2016. "Indirect contagion: the policy problem," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 09, European Systemic Risk Board.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Helena Redondo & Elisa Aracil, 2024. "Climate‐related credit risk: Rethinking the credit risk framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S1), pages 21-33, March.
    3. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    4. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2023. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Donia Aloui & Brahim Gaies & Rafla Hchaichi, 2023. "Exploring environmental degradation spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa: the energy–financial instability nexus," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1699-1724, June.
    6. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2022. "Environmental regulation and financial stability: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Kok, Christoffer, 2022. "Contagion accounting in stress-testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Celani, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Pagnottoni, Paolo, 2024. "The topological structure of panel variance decomposition networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2022. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Roncoroni, Alan & Battiston, Stefano & D’Errico, Marco & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer, 2021. "Interconnected banks and systemically important exposures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. D'Orazio, Paola & Hertel, Tobias & Kasbrink, Fynn, 2022. "No need to worry? Estimating the exposure of the German banking sector to climate-related transition risks," Ruhr Economic Papers 946, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Climate change and financial systemic risk: Evidence from US banks and insurers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    14. Dirk Broeders & Marleen de Jonge & David Rijsbergen, 2024. "The European Carbon Bond Premium," Working Papers 798, DNB.
    15. Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    16. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Iñaki Aldasoro & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Christoffer Kok Sørensen, 2020. "Contagion Accounting," BIS Working Papers 908, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Birindelli, Giuliana & Dell’Atti, Stefano & Di Tommaso, Caterina & Iannuzzi, Antonia Patrizia & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2024. "The impact of banks’ climate engagement on systemic risk. Does committing a little or a lot make a difference?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    19. Getaneh Mihret Ayele & Fentaw Leykun Fisseha, 2024. "Does climate change affect the financial stability of Sub-Saharan African countries?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(10), pages 1-22, October.
    20. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2022. "Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Low-carbon transition; Asset allocation; Investment funds; NGFS scenarios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnv:wpaper:dt_81en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jose María Moreno (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnmgves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.