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Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system

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  • Xu, Hai-Chuan
  • Li, Tai-Min
  • Dai, Peng-Fei
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong
  • Zhou, Wei-Xing

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate risks on the financial system is one of the most urgent issues currently. We build a network-based climate risk model to explain how a shock from climate policies translates into shocks in the banking system. Then, we conduct macroprudential stress tests on the Chinese banking system under various climate policy scenarios. We show that under the policy target of peaking the carbon in 2030 and CO2 concentration no more than 500 ppm in 2100, individual banks in China will face equity losses ranging from 1.93% to 14.03%, equivalent to an overall loss of 6.94% in 2025. When considering the electric power sector's adoption of green energy technologies, the adverse effects will be slightly mitigated. Our stress tests suggest that the implementation of climate policies should be gradual and consider potential economic impacts so that climate goals can be achieved without undue shocks to the economy.

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  • Xu, Hai-Chuan & Li, Tai-Min & Dai, Peng-Fei & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Stress testing climate risk: A network-based analysis of the Chinese banking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:149:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001943
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103207
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    1. Han, Linna & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Wang, Xianzi & Alharbi, Samar S. & Wang, Yong, 2024. "Will fighting climate change affect commercial banks? A carbon tax policy simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Climate policy; Network model; Macroprudential stress testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

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