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Financial crisis: a new measure for risk of pension funds assets

Author

Listed:
  • M. Cadoni
  • R. Melis
  • A. Trudda

Abstract

It has been debated that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Cadoni & R. Melis & A. Trudda, 2012. "Financial crisis: a new measure for risk of pension funds assets," Working Paper CRENoS 201231, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    • Handle: RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201231
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiona Stewart, 2007. "Pension Fund Investment in Hedge Funds," OECD Working Papers on Insurance and Private Pensions 12, OECD Publishing.
    2. Haberman, Steven & Sung, Joo-Ho, 1994. "Dynamic approaches to pension funding," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 151-162, December.
    3. Sergio Bianchi, 2005. "Pathwise Identification Of The Memory Function Of Multifractional Brownian Motion With Application To Finance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 255-281.
    4. Sergio, Bianchi & Alessandro, Trudda, 2008. "Global Asset Return in Pension Funds: a dynamical risk analysis," MPRA Paper 12011, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jun 2008.
    5. Haberman, Steven, 1997. "Stochastic investment returns and contribution rate risk in a defined benefit pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 127-139, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Garcin, 2019. "Fractal analysis of the multifractality of foreign exchange rates [Analyse fractale de la multifractalité des taux de change]," Working Papers hal-02283915, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension funds; risk control; multifractional brownian motion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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